080
FXUS62 KTAE 301730
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1230 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
- A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
AND THIS RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE IS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE COAST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
LOWERED HIGHS 1-2F TODAY AND INCREASED SKY COVER MAINLY WEST OF
PANAMA CITY TO ALBANY LINE WITH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING ALTOSTRATUS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4F LOWER
THAN FORECAST. FURTHER EAST, TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVERAGE IS ON
TRACK WITH HIGHS MID-UPPER 70S FROM TALLAHASSEE TO VALDOSTA SOUTH
TO CROSS CITY.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES 20-40% AFTER NOON
TIME IS ON TRACK AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE WEAK, BUT IT WILL GRADUALLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM. WEAK LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AT 20-30%.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY AT TIMES, MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK HIGH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN 850 MB JET OF 40-50 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WEAK INSTABILITY MOVES
INLAND. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN RECOVER NORTHWARD AS SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE HIGH.
AREAS NEAR THE PANHANDLE COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATER ON TUESDAY WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD APPROACH WITH
ANOTHER MEDIUM CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS (MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS) ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BAND OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD, ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR
WEST IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA PER HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND LOCAL RADAR
IMAGERY INTO ECP AND DHN FROM 20-21Z TO 02Z. ALSO TWEAKED CLOUD
HEIGHTS AND WIND DIRECTION PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS DO SHOW MVFR CIGS
REACHING I65 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BUT HALTING AND DISSIPATING TO
OUR WEST. SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN AL THIS AFTERNOON
REACHING OUR FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST AL COUNTIES AFTER 18Z
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. MODELS ALSO
SHOW MVFR/IFR CONDS BUILDING FROM THE WEST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FOR POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE THE REGION THE
BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE'VE SEEN IN SOME TIME. THE
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS PAINT 1-2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WITH 0.25-1 INCH VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THIS WOULD BE VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, BUT WE
WILL NEED SEVERAL OF THESE SYSTEMS TO ERASE THE LARGE RAINFALL
DEFICITS ACROSS THE REGION.
SPEAKING OF ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS, ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH
OR GREATER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 56 73 62 / 10 20 30 80
PANAMA CITY 72 57 73 60 / 30 30 40 90
DOTHAN 70 52 68 55 / 20 30 40 90
ALBANY 70 51 67 55 / 20 30 30 90
VALDOSTA 75 53 72 59 / 0 10 30 70
CROSS CITY 79 55 79 62 / 0 10 20 50
APALACHICOLA 70 60 70 64 / 20 20 30 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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