462
FXUS62 KTAE 050701
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
201 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
- A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FL COUNTIES. GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES FROM PANAMA CITY TO VALDOSTA NORTHWEST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE FL/
SOUTHERN TIER OF GA COUNTIES TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME CONVECTION
FIRING AS OF 1 AM ET OFF THE LA COAST TO THE AL/FL BORDER, WHICH
IS HANDLED WELL BY THE 03Z RRFS, ALBEIT A COUPLE HOURS FAST. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, AN OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SRH
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE 00Z HREF SHOWS PROBABILITY
OF SB CAPE AOA 500 J/KG IN THE 50-80% RANGE FROM THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE COAST INTO INLAND SECTIONS OF THE BIG BEND. MEANWHILE,
SRH (0-1 KM) IS AROUND 150 M2/S2. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
AROUND 6.5 C/KM AIDING IN BUOYANCY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA
50 KNOTS. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED ALONG/
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
A BRIEF TORNADO. TIMING CENTERED ON THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN
FL PANHANDLE AND THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BIG BEND. ELSEWHERE, ANY
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OTHERWISE, A WET DAY IS ON TAP
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL (DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION AT
THE BOTTOM) AND FOG THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND (CLOSER
TO THE APALACHICOLA RIVER). HIGHS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE RECENTLY AND TODAY SHOULD BE NO EXCEPTION, WITH QUITE A
GRADIENT AS THE WARM FRONT BISECTS THE REGION, RANGING FROM THE
LOW 50S NORTHWEST (CLOSER TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE) TO
MID-70S SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (DISCUSSED IN
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION AT THE BOTTOM) WITH A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER
ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR
50 NORTHWEST TO THE MID-60S SOUTHEAST, GENERALLY BETWEEN THE 10TH
AND 25TH PERCENTILE OF THE GUIDANCE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT, MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 MPH. IT WILL TURN CHILLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S, LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER SHELTERING CONCERNS OF VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS. MEANWHILE, HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO MID-60S
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A WARMING TREND BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
A MOIST AIR MASS AND A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SUPPORT LARGE AREAS OF STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH A BATCH OF STRONG SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING FROM ECP TO TLH TO
VLD. FOR LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN, THANKS TO LIGHT N-NE SURFACE WINDS AND
SW WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS AT THE 2,000-FOOT LEVEL. IFR CIGS AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME FOG MAY APPEAR LATER THIS MORNING NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FRONT, WHERE WARM MOIST AIR GLIDES ACROSS
SHALLOW COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF ALL TERMINALS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE WATERS TODAY, WINDS START OUT
SOUTHERLY THEN CLOCK AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM
WEST TO EAST. WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE TODAY,
SMALL CRAFT ARE ADMONISHED TO EXERCISE CAUTION, AND SEAS
PEAK IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY. MORE TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND AS SEAS DECREASE TO AROUND 2
FEET. THE PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE
NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A 50% CHANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAINLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH RAIN, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY POSE A WATERSPOUT
THREAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
CLOUDY WITH WETTING RAINS ON TAP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THEN A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL UNTIL MIDWEEK. LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS/LOW MIXING
HEIGHTS LEAD TO LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND
SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES FROM PANAMA CITY TO VALDOSTA NORTHWEST.
THEREAFTER, A DRY PATTERN SETS IN MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST US DROUGHT MONITOR (DEC 4) HAS MUCH OF THE REGION
IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT; THE ONLY CHANGE
IN THE LAST WEEK IS A 1-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT FROM EXTREME (D3)
TO SEVERE (D2) IN PORTIONS OF COFFEE, DALE, AND HENRY COUNTIES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 53 59 52 / 60 40 70 70
PANAMA CITY 70 52 59 52 / 70 40 80 70
DOTHAN 53 48 53 47 / 70 70 80 40
ALBANY 52 48 53 46 / 80 70 80 50
VALDOSTA 69 51 58 50 / 80 60 80 70
CROSS CITY 74 58 68 54 / 40 40 50 70
APALACHICOLA 73 56 63 55 / 60 20 70 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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