828
FXUS62 KTAE 061848
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
148 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 144 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
- ANOTHER FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THERE
IS ABOUT A 20-50% CHANCE FOR 2" OR MORE RAINFALL IN THE FL BIG
BEND, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE SE BIG BEND.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, AT TIMES DENSE, IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AREAS OF FOG MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL NORTH OF I-10 INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, WHERE THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR MONDAY MORNING.
- ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY BEING ISSUED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOR AREAS WEST OF APALACHEE BAY.
- COLD WEATHER WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW 30S ARE LIKELY
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. MOISTURE INCOMING FROM THE GULF ALONG A SURFACE LOW WILL
BRING AN INFLUX OF RAINFALL ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT COULD ADD A
POTENTIAL 1.5" INCHES FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE GULF, KEEPING THE
HEAVIER RAIN MORESO IN THE FL SE BIG BEND. WHEREAS, THE GEFS AND
HREF PLACE IT FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THERE IS
STILL A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR RAIN SUNDAY, BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS
IN REGARDS TO WHERE THE MOST RAIN WILL FALL. BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE
A CONSENSUS AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES THAT THAT THERE IS ABOUT A
20-50% CHANCE FOR FURTHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 2 INCHES,
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE SE BIG BEND. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MINIMAL, EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER, AND THE COLD RAIN WILL EXTINGUISH
PRETTY MUCH ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, CLEARING OUT
THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH FOR THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND
SE ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TERM WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10, AND LOW TO MID-60S TO THE SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S, WITH
LOW 50S IN THE BIG BEND. FOLLOWING MONDAY'S FRONT, THE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, AND AROUND 40
ALONG THE COAST AND SE BIG BEND.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE START OF THE TERM, GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMING FROM THE
UPPER 30S (LOW 30S FOR THE REGION BETWEEN THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND
TIFT RIVERS) TO THE LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION BY FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. IT
COULD BRING IN OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN. AT THIS TIME, THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AND
LOCATION. WE WILL MONITOR AND PROVIDE UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
MAINLY IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN AS
A STREAM OF MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN PLACE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO PERHAPS BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT, THE SHIELD OF RAIN WILL DRIFT SOUTH
WITH RAIN DIMINISHING AT DHN/ABY WHILE PERSISTING AT ECP/TLH/VLD.
ALTHOUGH PROBS ARE LOW, VLIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN THREE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CLOCK TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES OVER THE WATERS TODAY CONTINUES THE
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL RELAX A
LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL HAVE THE WINDS INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AND ADVISORY LEVELS FOR OUR WESTERN WATERS BY
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX
TO TRANQUIL WATERS BY MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SUNDAY, AT AROUND 5-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN BELOW 1000 FEET, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, KEEPING
DISPERSIONS LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY, CLEARING OUT THE REST OF THE
RAIN. DISPERSIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH FAIR TO MODERATE DISPERSIONS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY APPROACHING 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND ELEVATED RH, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
THIS PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 144 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD TOTAL UP TO 2",
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-
LYING AREAS. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THIS RAIN EVENT WILL
LIKELY SHOW IMPROVEMENT BUT, IT IS TOO SOON TO SAY HOW MUCH. THE
NEXT DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THURSDAY DECEMBER
11. THE LATEST US DROUGHT MONITOR (DEC 4) HAS MUCH OF THE REGION
IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT; THE ONLY CHANGE IN
THE LAST WEEK IS A 1-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT FROM EXTREME (D3) TO
SEVERE (D2) IN PORTIONS OF COFFEE, DALE, AND HENRY COUNTIES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 50 61 53 63 / 80 70 50 20
PANAMA CITY 50 65 53 64 / 80 70 50 10
DOTHAN 46 59 49 58 / 40 30 50 10
ALBANY 45 59 47 59 / 40 30 40 10
VALDOSTA 49 60 50 61 / 70 70 40 20
CROSS CITY 53 65 54 68 / 70 90 70 10
APALACHICOLA 53 65 55 65 / 80 90 60 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR FLZ108.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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