583
WTUS82 KTBW 082140
HLSTBW
FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-090545-
HURRICANE MILTON LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL AL142024
540 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024
THIS PRODUCT COVERS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
**CATEGORY 5 MILTON STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE, COASTAL CITRUS, COASTAL HERNANDO, COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH, COASTAL LEE, COASTAL LEVY, COASTAL MANATEE,
COASTAL PASCO, COASTAL SARASOTA, INLAND LEE, AND PINELLAS
- A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DESOTO, HARDEE, HIGHLANDS,
INLAND CHARLOTTE, INLAND CITRUS, INLAND HERNANDO, INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH, INLAND LEVY, INLAND MANATEE, INLAND PASCO, INLAND
SARASOTA, POLK, AND SUMTER
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FL
- 22.7N 87.5W
- STORM INTENSITY 165 MPH
- MOVEMENT EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
HURRICANE MILTON REMAINS A POWERFUL AND VERY DANGEROUS CAT 5 HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 165 MPH AS OF THE 5 PM EDT ADVISORY.
IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO, WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE BRINGING DEVASTATING TO LIFE THREATENING
IMPACTS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY. IT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY 4 OR 5 INTENSITY TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND ENSUES BEFORE LANDFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER,WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A MAJOR HURRICANE AND THE
STRONGEST IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR 100 YEARS. WE CAN STILL EXPECT LIFE
THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE IMPACTS REGARDLESS OF
STRENGTH WHEN MILTON MAKES LANDFALL, IN ADDITION TO DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST TO INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.
* STORM SURGE - LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL PEAK SURGE AMOUNTS ARE 10 TO 15 FEET FROM THE
ANCLOTE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD, 8 TO 12 FEET FROM ENGLEWOOD TO BONITA
BEACH, 5 TO 10 FEET FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO CHASSAHOWITZKA, 3 TO
5 FEET FROM CHASSAHOWITZKA TO YANKEETOWN, AND 2 TO 4 FEET FROM YANKEETOWN
TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
* RAIN - FLOODING RAIN THREAT WILL RUN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP
TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE.
* WIND - HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG THE COAST.
* TORNADOES - ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE AREA.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE CATASTROPHIC
IMPACTS ACROSS NATURE COAST, WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- WIDESPREAD DEEP INUNDATION, WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING GREATLY
ACCENTUATED BY POWERFUL BATTERING WAVES. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO
BUILDINGS, WITH MANY WASHING AWAY. DAMAGE GREATLY COMPOUNDED
FROM CONSIDERABLE FLOATING DEBRIS. LOCATIONS MAY BE
UNINHABITABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.
- NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS WASHED OUT OR
SEVERELY FLOODED. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME
STRESSED.
- EXTREME BEACH EROSION. NEW SHORELINE CUTS POSSIBLE.
- MASSIVE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS.
NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS WITH MANY LIFTED
ONSHORE AND STRANDED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE DEVASTATING
IMPACTS ACROSS NATURE COAST, WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, SOME WITH COMPLETE ROOF
AND WALL FAILURES. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. DAMAGE
GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY LARGE AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS.
- NUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. MANY BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT TO EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS NATURE COAST, WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA, AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
DEVASTATING IMPACTS ACROSS NATURE COAST, WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- EXTREME RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT NUMEROUS EVACUATIONS AND
RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY OVERWHELMINGLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS
IN MANY PLACES WITH DEEP MOVING WATER. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS,
CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME RAGING RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL
SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER NUMEROUS STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED
AWAY. NUMEROUS PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE
ROUTES. STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF RAGING WATER
WITH UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
DANGEROUS. NUMEROUS ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED
OR WASHED OUT.
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS NATURE COAST, WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS NATURE COAST, WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS
OF CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE
HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND BOATS TOSSED ABOUT. DANGEROUS
PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.
PROTECT AGAINST A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS NATURE COAST, WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. ENSURE YOU ARE IN A
SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING.
IF YOU ARE RELOCATING TO SAFE SHELTER, LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. MANY ROADS AND BRIDGES
WILL BE CLOSED ONCE STRONG WINDS ARRIVE. CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECAST BEFORE DEPARTING AND DRIVE WITH CAUTION.
IF HEADING TO A COMMUNITY SHELTER, BECOME FAMILIAR WITH THE SHELTER
RULES BEFORE ARRIVAL, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE SPECIAL NEEDS OR HAVE
PETS. TAKE ESSENTIAL ITEMS WITH YOU FROM YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES KIT.
FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY SHELTER MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF
LIFE. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. REMEMBER, DURING THE STORM 9 1 1 EMERGENCY
SERVICES MAY NOT BE ABLE TO IMMEDIATELY RESPOND IF CONDITIONS ARE
UNSAFE. THIS SHOULD BE A BIG FACTOR IN YOUR DECISION MAKING.
STORM SURGE IS THE LEADING KILLER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES! MAKE SURE YOU ARE IN A SAFE AREA AWAY FROM THE SURGE
ZONE. EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT IN A SURGE-PRONE AREA, YOU COULD FIND
YOURSELF CUTOFF BY FLOOD WATERS DURING AND AFTER THE STORM. HEED
EVACUATION ORDERS ISSUED BY THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
IF IN A PLACE THAT IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WIND, SUCH AS NEAR LARGE
TREES, A MANUFACTURED HOME, UPPER FLOORS OF A HIGH-RISE BUILDING, OR
ON A BOAT, CONSIDER MOVING TO A SAFER SHELTER BEFORE THE ONSET OF
STRONG WINDS OR FLOODING.
CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER.GOV, NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER
WARNINGS.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL AROUND 1 AM, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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