151
FXUS65 KTFX 162059
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
159 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY.
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
THE MONTANA HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY, WITH MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SNOW EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, EXPANDING TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL MT PLAINS IN THE EVENING. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
BEFORE ANOTHER SMALL TROUGH BRINGS IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW/LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY, STRONGER MID AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
MOVE IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TO CENTRAL MT
COULD HELP MIX THESE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW, BEFORE
STRONGER CHINOOK WINDS BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, A WEAKER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. ENSEMBLE
MODEL CLUSTERS INDICATE A TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE WESTERN U.S
COAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HERE.
THIS MAY TRY TO BRING IN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MONDAY, BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTHWEST.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR MINOR TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TUESDAY. KINGS HILL PASS HAS A 30% CHANCE FOR
4" OF SNOW, WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 7,500FT AT GREATER
PROBABILITIES. NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE'S A 10-20% FOR
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2", WITH SNOW GENERALLY STAYING AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SNOW WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MARIAS PASS HAS A 40% FOR 3" OF SNOW. HIGHER-RES
GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN ALONG THE HI-LINE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR 1" NORTH OF THE US
ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR.
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND THE MONTANA HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
THERE'S GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR 55MPH WINDS WEDNESDAY. THIS
HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS HIGH
WIND THREAT WILL GO, AS PROFILE SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE HELENA
VALLEY AND OTHER SOUTHWEST MT VALLEYS STRUGGLE TO MIX DOWN THESE
STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO UPTREND, THEN THE
CURRENT WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. -WILSON
AVIATION
16/18Z TAF PERIOD
AREAS OF SNOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TOWARD
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER SNOW
DEPARTS LATE EVENING OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
WILL KEEP SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE, MOSTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED THIS TAF PERIOD. -AM
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 20 30 19 52 / 50 10 30 20
CTB 14 22 11 45 / 40 10 50 40
HLN 23 40 28 52 / 40 10 20 40
BZN 20 38 22 47 / 60 10 10 30
WYS 15 30 17 32 / 90 50 60 50
DLN 20 38 24 44 / 30 10 10 10
HVR 13 22 7 39 / 30 30 50 60
LWT 20 31 16 48 / 60 20 30 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-GALLATIN
AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-LITTLE
BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN
TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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