164
FXUS65 KTFX 241100
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
- SNOWFALL GRADUALLY ENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE
A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT MOST OF THE
NIGHT, WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THOUGH.
EXPECT THE SNOW TO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO END STARTING LATE THIS
MORNING AND WITH THE SNOW ENDING OVERNIGHT IN THE LITTLE BELT
MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
TO END THE BROWNING/CUT BANK AREA AT 18Z. OTHERWISE, THE END TIMES
REMAIN THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE OTHER ZONES.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY MORNING, IT COULD BE QUITE
COLD IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MT. THUS A COLD ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE WEST YELLOWSTONE AREA FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS REALLY NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING. WITH
VISIBILITY NEAR ONE MILE, SNOWFALL RATES ARE NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR
BECAUSE OF THE SNOW RATIO. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST
IS ON TRACK, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES COMMON AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND 9/10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE KINGS HILL AND
BIG SNOWY AREAS.
IF SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR CONTINUE FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS,
OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR THESE HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE GREAT FALLS AND CASCADE AREAS, WHERE
SNOWFALL RATES ARE NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR CURRENTLY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
24/06Z TAF PERIOD
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT KCTB AND KHVR WITH
THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MT EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH SW MT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN EMBEDDED BANDS WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES.
SNOW ENDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BUT LIKELY SOME LINGERING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING SOME BLOWING SNOW TO KHVR AND KLWT.
HOENISCH
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 11 25 6 / 90 40 0 0
CTB 26 8 24 11 / 10 10 0 0
HLN 27 8 22 -1 / 90 30 0 0
BZN 24 0 17 -8 / 90 10 0 0
WYS 21 -13 18 -33 / 70 0 0 0
DLN 25 1 17 -6 / 40 0 0 0
HVR 29 8 23 9 / 10 0 0 0
LWT 24 8 20 4 / 60 20 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND
EASTERN TETON-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW
4500FT-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR LITTLE
BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CANYON FERRY
AREA-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE,
AND CENTRAL PONDERA-GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-MADISON RIVER
VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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