859
FXUS65 KTFX 241210
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
510 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
- SNOWFALL GRADUALLY ENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 400 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT MOST OF THE
NIGHT, WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THOUGH.
EXPECT THE SNOW TO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO END STARTING LATE THIS
MORNING AND WITH THE SNOW ENDING OVERNIGHT IN THE LITTLE BELT
MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
TO END THE BROWNING/CUT BANK AREA AT 18Z. OTHERWISE, THE END
TIMES REMAIN THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE OTHER ZONES.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY MORNING, IT COULD BE
QUITE COLD IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MT. THUS A COLD
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE WEST YELLOWSTONE AREA FOR SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS REALLY
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING.
WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ONE MILE, SNOWFALL RATES ARE NEAR 1 INCH PER
HOUR BECAUSE OF THE SNOW RATIO. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL
FORECAST IS ON TRACK, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 9 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
KINGS HILL AND BIG SNOWY AREAS.
IF SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR CONTINUE FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS,
OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR THESE HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE GREAT FALLS AND CASCADE AREAS, WHERE
SNOWFALL RATES ARE NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR CURRENTLY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
24/12Z TAF PERIOD
AT 12Z, A COLD FRONT WAS ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA, INCLUDING OVER THE KHLN TERMINAL, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT AND MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING THE KEKS TERMINAL BY 18Z. THE LIGHT SNOW
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA (INCLUDING KCTB AND KHVR) AS OF 12Z, LEAVING SOME
MOUNTAIN-TOP OBSCURING LOW VFR CEILINGS AROUND KCTB AND LESSER
CLOUDINESS AROUND KHVR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG, WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE DUE TO PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
MOUNTAIN-OBSCURING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA (KGTF, KLWT, KHLN) WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 17Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA, BUT MOUNTAIN-TOP OBSCURING LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 25/12Z. THE BAND OF SNOW WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SIMILAR MOUNTAIN-OBSCURING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA (KBZN, KEKS) BY 15Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AFTER 19Z, BUT SIMILAR LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO OBSCURE
MOUNTAIN TOPS.
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH AROUND 06Z,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TFX TERMINAL AREAS (KHVR, KLWT).
-COULSTON
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 11 25 6 / 90 40 0 0
CTB 26 8 24 11 / 10 10 0 0
HLN 27 8 22 -1 / 90 30 0 0
BZN 24 0 17 -8 / 90 10 0 0
WYS 21 -13 18 -33 / 70 0 0 0
DLN 25 1 17 -6 / 40 0 0 0
HVR 29 8 23 9 / 10 0 0 0
LWT 24 8 20 4 / 60 20 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND
EASTERN TETON-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW
4500FT-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR LITTLE
BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CANYON FERRY
AREA-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE,
AND CENTRAL PONDERA-GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-MADISON RIVER
VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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