037
FXUS65 KTFX 242322
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
422 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MORE PERSISTENT SNOW IN THE
CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS BEGINS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
- TRENDING TOWARD SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY,
WITH A DRY WEEK EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 143 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST IS RESULTING
IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER POTENT TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY HAS
PUSHED A COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MULTIPLE BANDS OF
SNOW HAVE DROPPED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THE
FRONT AND FAVORABLE FORCING FROM THE TROUGH. THESE BANDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, THOUGH WILL
LINGER IN NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AREAS, SUCH AS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
GALLATIN VALLEY, INCLUDING BOZEMAN. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINING WITH
CLEARING SKIES IS RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE IN SOME CAPACITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH THE
EVENING. LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DIMINISHES GOING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES SATURDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW TODAY WILL RETROGRADE
AND CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN CA AND RESULT IN A BLOCKED PATTERN, WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
WINDS DO LOOK TO BE BREEZY AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TREND A BIT
ABOVE AVERAGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY:
SNOW LARGELY DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. AREAS MOST FAVORED FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE IN THE
LITTLE BELTS, AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MONTANA SOUTH OF I-90 IN
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AREAS, WHERE A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER:
FORECAST MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE UNANIMOUS IN A DRY PERIOD
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, GIVEN A REX BLOCK THAT WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE WEST. ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK BREEZY NEXT WEEK AT
TIMES, THE CHANCE FOR A 58 MPH GUST IS LESS THAN 10% EACH DAY IN
AREAS AWAY FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. -AM
AVIATION
25/00Z TAF PERIOD
MOIST, NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR
LOW CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SATURDAY, WITH IMPROVING CIGS
THEREAFTER. SNOW CHANCES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND 06Z
THIS EVENING, BUT A LINGERING SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MONTANA ISLAND RANGES. BRIEF
BREAKS IN THE LOW CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN 03-09Z
SATURDAY, ARE LIKELY TO BE DESTRUCTIVE IN NATURE AND ALLOW PEAK
RADIATION COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THESE BREAKS
APPEAR MOST LIKELY NEAR THE KGTF, KLWT, KBZN TERMINALS, WITH
LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A 50-70% CHANCE FOR VIS REDUCTIONS
BELOW MVFR AT THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS AND A 20-60% CHANCE FOR
IFR VIS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
MORNING HOURS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 15-18Z SATURDAY PER THE
LATEST HREF GUIDANCE. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 12 24 8 29 / 20 0 0 0
CTB 8 24 11 34 / 30 0 0 0
HLN 9 21 -1 24 / 30 0 0 0
BZN 0 17 -9 21 / 40 0 0 0
WYS -14 17 -32 24 / 20 0 0 0
DLN 1 16 -6 21 / 20 0 0 0
HVR 9 23 9 29 / 20 0 0 0
LWT 7 19 3 32 / 60 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW
4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-SNOWY AND JUDITH
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR LITTLE
BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GALLATIN
VALLEY-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL
MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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