165
FXUS65 KTFX 261105
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
405 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG AND COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST MT THIS MORNING IS ALLOWING FOR A VERY
COLD MORNING, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING, AND WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES BY LATE MORNING AS WELL, THE COLD AIR PRODUCTS SHOULD
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY THEN. OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH, AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA.
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, EXPECT QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST MT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE DAY, SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS MIGHT NOT WARM AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED. THUS SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT NEED TO MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MT THIS WEEK TO LOWER THEM A BIT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE ON FRIDAY, BUT MOST
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/EC WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
A FEW DAYS AGO, BUT NOW HAVE DIVERGED A BIT, WITH THE GFS BECOMING
A BIT WARMER AND SLOWER WITH THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW. SO
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL/TEMPERATURES MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST MT. WITH A COLD START AND
LIGHT WINDS, THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST MT WILL BE SLOW TO WARM, AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH
A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 4 TO 8 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS, EXPECT GLACIER PARK WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED
A FOOT. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES ARE LOW NOW, BECAUSE OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES, THUS THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THESE SNOW AMOUNTS.
BRUSDA
AVIATION
26/06Z TAF PERIOD
RIDGING ALOFT BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY NEAR THE KBZN AND KHLN
TERMINALS. STRENGTHENING VALLEY INVERSIONS INTERACTING WITH
LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE MAY ENCOURAGE THE FOG TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND BRING PERIODIC IFR/LIFR FLIGHT DEGRADATIONS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS OVER THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST. - RCG
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 18 37 18 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 33 21 37 20 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 21 9 31 10 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 17 3 30 7 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 22 -12 32 -6 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 19 5 29 9 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 30 18 37 18 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 32 19 40 20 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-ELKHORN AND BOULDER
MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY
VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND
MACDONALD PASS.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CANYON FERRY
AREA-GALLATIN VALLEY-HELENA VALLEY-MISSOURI HEADWATERS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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