419
FXUS65 KTFX 281058
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
358 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
IN THE BROWNING AND CUT BANK AREAS.
- SNOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY MORNING IN GLACIER PARK AND THE MARIAS
PASS AREA.
- STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA STARTING ON
SATURDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE JUST OF
THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER MT. THE QUIET WEATHER NOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY IN THE BROWNING/CUT BANK AREAS. WITH A CORE OF 50 KNOT
WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM 6 AM WED
TO 6 AM THU, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THESE STRONG WINDS COULD
MIX DOWN AT TIMES. THUS A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
CUT BANK ZONE FOR THIS TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONG
WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THU IN THESE SAME AREAS. BY FRIDAY, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, AND A FAST MOVING WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT, THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW FALLING ALONG THE DIVIDE,
ESPECIALLY UP IN GLACIER PARK. ON SATURDAY, A STRONG CANADIAN COLD
FRONT WILL START TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE SNOWFALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT WITH THIS FRONT, AND NOW SHOW THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE COLLIDING
OVER SOUTHWEST MT. BY MONDAY MORNING, MID LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE
SWITCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MT. BUT AGAIN, SOME FORECAST MODELS DON'T SHOW THE SNOW GOING VERY
FAR NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT, SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, I DID KEEP THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST MT
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY, WARMING
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL NBM TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT,
BUT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS MIGHT BE A BIT
WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND, EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MT, BUT THE COLD AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO
LIKE DILLON/WEST YELLOWSTONE AREA.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS UP TO A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH IN
THE CUT BANK AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.
FOR GLACIER PARK, THERE IS A 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SNOWFALL OVER
6 INCHES FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL OF A FEW INCHES LOOK LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST MT SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING AN HOUR OR TWO OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN WITH THE POTENTIAL
OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL MON INTO TUE.
WITH THE SNOW COVER DECREASING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND NOT MUCH
SNOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH WILL BE
TRICKY, AS IT MIGHT NOT GET AS COLD AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THIS
AIRMASS AND AREAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT THAT HAVE NO SNOW COVER.
BRUSDA
AVIATION
28/06Z TAF PERIOD
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD; HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
IN THE WIND PROTECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 3 MILES ARE
MOSTLY RUNNING LESS THAN 20% FOR KBZN AND KHLN. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME ON TUESDAY. - RCG
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 37 23 42 26 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 37 22 41 25 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 23 7 26 14 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 20 -4 23 3 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 27 -16 33 -2 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 32 6 36 10 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 36 17 38 18 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 40 22 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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