041
FXUS65 KTFX 070430
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS ARRIVE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MONDAY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS.
- A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
UPDATED FORECAST IS OUT. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO END THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST MT. SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES, BUT
OVERALL, THE SNOWFALL IS DECREASING, WITH MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING TO CONTINUE THOUGH. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 459 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST MT. MAIN IMPACTS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
MT/ID BORDER, WHERE THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF A 700MB FRONTOGENETIC
BAND ENHANCING SNOWFALL. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. SNOW DROPS OFF THIS EVENING, CLEARING OUT IN THE LATE
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS MOVE IN
FOR THE WEEKEND, AND WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING STRONGER MID-
LEVEL WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
WILL HELP MIX THESE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
CREATING WIDESPREAD GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS. A SERIES OF SMALLER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION HAVE RESULTED IN LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DILLON AND ENNIS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND
WINDS WILL LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, CAUSING MINOR IMPACTS
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RUBY VALLEY AND NORRIS HILL
AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AN EARLIER END TIME TO THE SNOW
THIS EVENING. SNOW DROPS OFF THIS EVENING, ENDING BY 10PM TONIGHT
TO 12AM FRIDAY. THIS EARLIER DOWNTREND MAY RESULT IN THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPIRING SOONER.
FOR WINDS THIS WEEKEND, THE GENERAL TREND SO FAR HAS BEEN MONDAY
BEING THE BEST DAY FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE STRONG 700MB WINDS
AND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE ONE UNCERTAINTY IS HOW STRONG
WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SUNDAY. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS MOVE IN SUNDAY. THERE IS A
30-60% CHANCE FOR 55 MPH WINDS AT THE CUT BANK AREA, AND A 30-70%
CHANCE FOR 75MPH WINDS CLOSER TOWARDS THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS A
BIT OF A SPREAD IN ENSEMBLES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND. THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE MID LEVEL WINDS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WINDS MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
HELPING MIX WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
FOR NEXT WEEK, ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A FEW UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THOUGH, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DO
HINT AT A MORE DYNAMIC TROUGH FORMING ALONG THE WEST COAST
TOWARDS THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. -WILSON
AVIATION
07/00Z TAF PERIOD
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AT 06/2345Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND 18Z. LINGERING MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES THROUGH AROUND 06Z ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA (UP TO AROUND KHLN), BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS, WITH CLOUDS FURTHER DECREASING
AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE, MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE PLAINS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH 09Z.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA SHOULD ALSO DECREASE THROUGH 03Z, AS WILL ASSOCIATED LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THOSE AREAS. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BECOME MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA AFTER 16Z.
-COULSTON
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 22 49 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 18 47 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 19 43 26 49 / 30 0 0 0
BZN 14 36 15 46 / 20 0 0 0
WYS 7 37 4 38 / 30 0 0 0
DLN 20 39 21 47 / 30 0 0 0
HVR 19 47 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 16 42 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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