776
FXUS65 KTFX 070935
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
235 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASINGLY MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF
THE WEST COAST INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WESTERN/NW US THIS WEEKEND. LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
PRIMARILY SW MT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILING BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, PEAKING ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES STEADILY INCREASES
THROUGH SATURDAY, SUPPORTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT
ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND ADJACENT AREAS, AND DEVELOPING ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT ON SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE
RISK FOR STRONG WINDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SW
CANADA FLATTENS THE RIDGE WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AB/SK.
A ZONAL (W TO E) FLOW PATTERN FOLLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME COOLING AND A CHANCE FOR BRIEF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. BY LATE NEXT NEXT WEEK, LONGER RAGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN, DEPICTING A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN US FOR
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ADDITIONAL COOLING.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
STRONG WINDS: LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES A 50% OR HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT
AND AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY BY LATE SUNDAY. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT HOWEVER ARE IN PLACE
ALREADY SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD ALLOW FOR THE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
OF LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES. BY
MONDAY, THE RISK FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH INCREASES TO 30-50%
ACROSS A LARGER PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL MT, INCLUDING AREAS NEAR THE
CENTRAL MT MOUNTAINS AND ISLAND RANGES.
MONDAY COLD FRONT: TIMING OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH SW MT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL) ALONG WITH BRIEF STRONGER
WIND GUSTS.
LATE WEEK TROUGH: OVERALL AGREEMENT FOR AN AMPLIFIED/NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN US LATE NEXT WEEK SUPPORTS
A SPRING-TYPE STORM SYSTEM WITH MORE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION/SNOW
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON DETAILS STILL TO BE RESOLVED. HOENISCH
AVIATION
07/06Z TAF PERIOD
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE LINGERING MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT,
AS WELL AS DECREASE THE HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. HOWEVER, BROKEN LOW VFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA (INCLUDING
THE KEKS AND KBZN AREAS) THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z, WHICH MAY OBSCURE
SOME MOUNTAIN TOPS. ALSO, AT KBZN, SNOW SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE
VALLEY EARLIER THIS EVENING, AND WEBCAMS INDICATE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AT THE AIRPORT. AM THINKING THAT THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CAUSE PERIODS OF TERRAIN-OBSCURING MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KBZN BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z, ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO DECREASE. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY
START TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND
NORTHERLY THROUGH SOME SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS (INCLUDING KEKS),
MAINLY THROUGH AROUND 18Z; OTHERWISE, WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MONTANA SHOULD BECOME MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST AFTER 16Z. -COULSTON
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 50 33 57 41 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 49 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 43 25 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 36 15 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 37 5 38 10 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 39 21 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 49 27 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 42 26 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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