311
FXUS65 KTFX 081009
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
309 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WARM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
- IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING.
- MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE
MOST IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND A MODESTLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST IMPACTFUL WINDS ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IT WILL BE WARM WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
AT THE HIGHER-ELEVATIONS AND RAIN AT THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AT
THE HIGHER-ELEVATIONS AND RAIN AT THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS. ON THURSDAY
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AT THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND COOLER (BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FOR WINDS TODAY THERE IS A 50 - 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH
OR GREATER ALONG THE PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
THERE IS A 60 - 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THESE WINDS
OCCURRING DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS NOT
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. FOR WINDS ON SUNDAY THERE IS A 60 - 80% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
ON SUNDAY THERE IS A 30 - 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR
GREATER AND A 60 - 90% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER
ALONG THE PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. FOR WINDS ON
MONDAY THERE IS A 60 - 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR
GREATER AND A 30 - 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER
ALONG THE PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A 50 - 75% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. AS A RESULT A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS FROM SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY THERE IS A 40 - 80%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. AS A RESULT A HIGH WIND WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA FOR MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EARLY EVENING. ON MONDAY THERE IS A 30 - 80%
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE MADISON
RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO A LACK OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AT THIS TIME A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THE
MADISON RIVER VALLEY.
FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION (CUT
BANK TO HAVRE TO GREAT FALLS) THERE IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 65 DEGREES OR GREATER. FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A 10 - 30% CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF A INCH
OR MORE ACROSS THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. FOR SNOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
THERE IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER.
CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM IS HIGH DUE TO
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER THERE ARE BIG DISCREPANCIES IN HOW FAST THE TROUGH
MOVES AND HOW AMPLIFIED IT IS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY TWO
SCENARIOS A COLD ONE AND A WARM ONE. THE WARM SCENARIO WILL HAVE
LIMITED IMPACTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO ALL OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS MELTING AND LIMITED IF ANY REFREEZING OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
SCENARIO WILL BE MORE IMPACTFUL DUE TO MORE SNOW ACCUMULATING AT
LOWER-ELEVATIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE TO FORM UNDERNEATH THE
SNOW DUE TO WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES. -IG
AVIATION
08/06Z TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY A
BROKEN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH BREEZY
WINDS AT TIMES OVER THE PLAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. BRUSDA
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 56 41 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 53 35 60 36 / 10 0 0 20
HLN 52 30 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 47 23 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 38 11 41 18 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 51 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 58 36 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 52 34 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW
5000FT-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-SNOWY AND JUDITH
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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