527
FXUS65 KTFX 091057
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
457 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
EXPAND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT AND
ACROSS REMAINING AREAS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA MONDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH WINDS DIMINISHING LATER IN THE
DAY.
- A LARGER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE WESTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK
MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 417 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US THIS
MORNING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, GENERATING
WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS AND A CHINOOK ARCH DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES.
A MILD START DUE TO THE CLOUD-COVER AND ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT
WITH THE PASSING UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY, DESPITE
CHINOOK ARCH CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
700MB FLOW ALREADY AROUND 50KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INCREASES TO AROUND 60KTS TONIGHT WITH A 60-70KT MAXIMUM
STREAKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO BC TONIGHT FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND
TRACKS ACROSS AB/SK MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE WAVE IN SOUTHERN AB TODAY WILL TACK EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES ON MONDAY WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING.
THE STRENGTHENING CROSS BARRIER FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES ALONG WITH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. STRONG
WINDS WILL EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND MUCH OF
GLACIER COUNTY TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT. WHILE
NOT AS LONG IN DURATION, STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE PASSAGE THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
A NARROW PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND FRONT WILL BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NEAR GLACIER NP LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MAINLY
LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON MONDAY. HI-RES MODELS
HOWEVER DO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MT MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING CANADIAN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY BUT
REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BENEATH A
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FAIRLY POTENT LARGE SCALE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN US LATE THIS WEEK. WHILE THE STRONGEST
ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SW US, THERE IS
REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTH TO
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A RISK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WIND: HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT WHERE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 80 MPH ARE LIKELY (60-80% PROBABILITY) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST SLOPES WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT BRINGING LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS IN FAVORED AREAS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE LIKELY AS FAR
EAST AS CUT BANK BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING
TIMING OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT IS TYPICALLY NOT AS
FAVORABLE, COOLING ALOFT AND SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WITH THE PACIFIC
COLD FRONT STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH WHILE ACCOMPANYING 60-70KT 700 MB FLOW IS AROUND THE 80TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM: THERE IS STILL THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF TIMING AND TRACK OF SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS A 30-50%
CHANCE OF 2 INCH OR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS THU-FRI WITH SOME
SOUTHWEST MT MOUNTAIN RANGES HAVING A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. HOENISCH
AVIATION
09/12Z TAF PERIOD
PRIMARY IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE RELATED TO WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OTHERWISE.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BRING AN
INCREASING RISK OF MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AT
MOST N-CENTRAL MT TERMINALS TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. HOENISCH
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 62 39 48 34 / 0 0 20 0
CTB 59 29 43 28 / 0 20 20 0
HLN 58 35 47 30 / 0 10 20 0
BZN 51 28 46 24 / 0 0 20 10
WYS 41 17 40 19 / 0 10 10 10
DLN 53 30 48 28 / 0 0 10 0
HVR 63 29 46 23 / 0 0 20 0
LWT 55 34 43 25 / 0 0 20 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-FERGUS
COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH
GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-
SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM MDT MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM MDT MONDAY FOR EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page