603
FXUS65 KTFX 101122
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
522 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS
THIS MORNING.
- IT WILL BE WINDY IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY.
- THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH
PRIMARILY RAIN AT MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MONTANA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 347 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
TODAY. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF THE AREA.
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP
SLIGHTLY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHER-ELEVATIONS OF
THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IT WILL BE
WINDY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
THE AREA. AT THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT
AS RAIN. ON THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IT WILL BE
WINDY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND COOLER
(BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING SNOW
PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FOR WINDS TODAY THERE IS A 60 - 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH
OR GREATER AND A 15 - 40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER
ALONG THE PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TODAY THERE
IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TODAY THERE IS A 30 - 70% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. TODAY THERE IS A 30 - 70% CHANCE FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE MADISON RIVER VALLEY.
DUE TO A LACK OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THE MADISON RIVER
VALLEY. FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A 40 - 70% CHANCE FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE MADISON RIVER VALLEY.
FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF
55 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS BEGINNING AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH WIND WATCH
WAS NOT ISSUED AT THIS TIME. FOR WINDS ON THURSDAY THERE IS A 30 -
70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
FOR SNOW TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
THERE IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER.
CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM IS HIGH DUE TO
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. AS A RESULT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN LOWER-ELEVATION PRECIPITATION
TYPES AND AMOUNTS. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
BEGUN TO TREND DOWN IN TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS STILL A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SYSTEM. -IG
AVIATION
10/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINALS. IT WILL BE WINDY AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INSTANCES OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN NOW AND 10/18Z. THERE WILL BE
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 10/18Z THERE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR THE KBZN, KEKS,
AND KHLN TERMINALS. -IG
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 51 34 53 38 / 10 0 0 10
CTB 45 28 47 31 / 20 0 0 0
HLN 48 32 51 32 / 10 10 10 0
BZN 49 27 51 28 / 20 10 0 0
WYS 41 18 43 19 / 10 10 0 0
DLN 52 29 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 47 24 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
LWT 45 26 48 31 / 20 10 20 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN
PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-FERGUS
COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH
GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-
SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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