430
FXUS65 KTFX 101617
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1017 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SNOW BANDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LITTLE BELT
MOUNTAINS AND BRING LOCALIZED WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE
HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG AT TIMES OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NARROW
SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTED VALLEYS.
- A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BRINGS THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW, WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.
UPDATE
THE MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN PUBLISHED. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS, BUT WILL UNDERGO RESISTANCE
FROM STRONG H700 WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MT HIGHWAY 87/200
CORRIDOR. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS CANNED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT, WHILE RETAINING THE PRODUCT FOR AREAS TO
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MIXING IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT.
THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE DOES HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
BANDS TO DEVELOP OVER AND NORTH OF THE LITTLE BELTS THIS
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY IMPACTING HIGHWAY 87/89 BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND
LEWISTOWN. POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD AND QPF WAS RAISED A BIT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND AND INCH OR LESS, BUT
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES. SNOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
TODAY'S MAX TEMPERATURES AND HOURLIES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE QUICK COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. TH
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. - RCG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 347 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
TODAY. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF THE AREA.
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP
SLIGHTLY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHER-ELEVATIONS OF
THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IT WILL BE
WINDY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
THE AREA. AT THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT
AS RAIN. ON THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IT WILL BE
WINDY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND COOLER
(BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING SNOW
PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FOR WINDS TODAY THERE IS A 60 - 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH
OR GREATER AND A 15 - 40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER
ALONG THE PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TODAY THERE
IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TODAY THERE IS A 30 - 70% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. TODAY THERE IS A 30 - 70% CHANCE FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE MADISON RIVER VALLEY.
DUE TO A LACK OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THE MADISON RIVER
VALLEY. FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A 40 - 70% CHANCE FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE MADISON RIVER VALLEY.
FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF
55 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS BEGINNING AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH WIND WATCH
WAS NOT ISSUED AT THIS TIME. FOR WINDS ON THURSDAY THERE IS A 30 -
70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
FOR SNOW TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
THERE IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER.
CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM IS HIGH DUE TO
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. AS A RESULT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN LOWER-ELEVATION PRECIPITATION
TYPES AND AMOUNTS. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
BEGUN TO TREND DOWN IN TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS STILL A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SYSTEM. -IG
AVIATION
10/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINALS. IT WILL BE WINDY AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INSTANCES OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN NOW AND 10/18Z. THERE WILL BE
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 10/18Z THERE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR THE KBZN, KEKS,
AND KHLN TERMINALS. -IG
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 46 34 53 38 / 10 10 10 0
CTB 36 28 47 31 / 30 0 0 0
HLN 48 32 51 32 / 10 10 10 0
BZN 49 27 51 28 / 20 10 0 0
WYS 41 18 43 19 / 20 10 0 0
DLN 52 29 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 43 24 53 30 / 10 0 10 0
LWT 45 26 48 31 / 70 30 20 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD
MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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