192
FXUS65 KTFX 020603
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1203 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY IT WILL BE DRY AND GRADUALLY WARM
UP.
- SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE
AREA WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MONTANA.
- BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IT DRY BACK OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 511 PM MDT THU MAY 1 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM UP GRADUALLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
ON SUNDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS IS DUE
TO SOME INSTABILITY IN THOSE AREAS FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL
MONTANA. ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON FRIDAY THERE IS A 20 - 50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF 80 DEGREES OR
GREATER ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON SATURDAY
THERE IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 OR GREATER
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A
20 - 50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF 80 DEGREES OR GREATER ACROSS THE
PLAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON SATURDAY THERE IS A 30 - 60%
CHANCE FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 OR GREATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON SATURDAY IN THE GALLATIN AND HELENA
VALLEY THERE IS A 40 - 80% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 80
DEGREES OR GREATER.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM
CANADA THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FORM ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
AROUND A 10 - 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW
SNOW-LEVELS WILL FALL DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
AS A RESULT, AT AND BELOW PASS-LEVEL THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT PRIMARILY IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA THERE IS A 20 - 50% CHANCE FOR TWO INCHES OR MORE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT DOWN TO
MACDONALD PASS IS AN AREA FAVORED FOR HEAVY SNOW. SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY THERE IS A 20 - 60% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR
GREATER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
-IG
AVIATION
02/06Z TAF PERIOD
THE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR DENSITY ALTITUDE
IMPACTS TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
OTHERWISE. -AM
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 79 43 83 48 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 79 41 82 46 / 0 0 0 20
HLN 79 45 83 48 / 0 0 0 10
BZN 75 39 80 42 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 66 26 70 30 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 73 40 76 42 / 0 0 0 10
HVR 79 41 86 46 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 72 43 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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