581
FXUS65 KTFX 022036
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
236 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM.
- SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MONTANA.
- BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IT DRYS BACK OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
GRADUALLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
ON SUNDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS IS DUE
TO SOME INSTABILITY IN THOSE AREAS FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MONTANA. ON SUNDAY
DUE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON SATURDAY IN THE GALLATIN AND HELENA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THERE IS GREATER THAN A 70% CHANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 80 DEGREES OR GREATER. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO FORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS AROUND A 10
- 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES.
FOR SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW
SNOW-LEVELS WILL FALL DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
AS A RESULT AT AND BELOW PASS-LEVEL THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT PRIMARILY IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA THERE IS A 30 - 70% CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES OR MORE AND A 20 -
50% CHANCE FOR SIX INCHES OR MORE SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A 20 - 60% CHANCE FOR A HALF INCH OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION OR GREATER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. -IG
AVIATION
02/18Z TAF PERIOD
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BUTTE TO HAVRE THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY THIN OUT BY
02Z ON SAT. OTHERWISE, VFR AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. BRUSDA
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 43 83 47 70 / 0 0 10 30
CTB 40 82 47 59 / 0 0 20 50
HLN 46 83 49 70 / 0 10 10 60
BZN 40 80 42 72 / 0 0 0 50
WYS 26 71 29 70 / 0 0 0 40
DLN 40 76 42 72 / 0 0 0 60
HVR 41 85 46 71 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 44 78 48 72 / 0 0 0 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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