010  
FXUS65 KTFX 040545  
AFDTFX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT  
1145 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025  
 
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, BEFORE THE NEXT SPRING  
STORM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.  
 
- SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOP ON SUNDAY,  
AS COOLER TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA.  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  
 
- TURNING WARMER, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY  
LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
/ISSUED 824 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025/  
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING NORTH  
THROUGH WESTERN MT THIS EVENING ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SLOWLY  
PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS  
MAY CLIP AREAS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NORTH OF LINCOLN  
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH AREAS NEAR GLACIER NP AND ADJACENT  
PORTIONS OF GLACIER COUNTY SEEING PRECIPITATION INCREASE EARLY  
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE CONTINENTAL  
DIVIDE. MEANWHILE, MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND EAST OF  
I-15 WILL SEE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE  
REST OF TONIGHT. HOENISCH  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
/ISSUED 824 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025/  
 
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:  
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA, QUIET AND  
NICE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY  
SUNDAY MORNING, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO  
APPROACH THE GLACIER PARK REGION, ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO  
DEVELOP IN THAT AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
ON SUNDAY, A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH THE CWA, WHILE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE  
FRONT, WILL ALSO BRING IN COOLER AIR. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO  
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BE A BIT STRONG OVER  
SOUTHWEST MT IF THEY DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN  
CONCERN ON SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE THE TIME THE RAIN CHANGES TO  
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE CHANGE OVER TIME WILL AFFECT TOTAL  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS BY MID DAY  
MONDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING  
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL  
BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, A NEW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CWA BY LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME  
FORECAST MODELS PROG WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH  
THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN  
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THU THRU SAT. HOWEVER,  
MOST MODELS AGREE THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE  
NORMAL READINGS, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MANY  
AREAS. DO EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT ON THURSDAY ALONG THE  
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND IN THE CUT BANK AREA, BUT AS OF  
NOW, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.  
 
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:  
THERE IS NOW A 75 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS  
OF AROUND A HALF INCH FROM HELENA TO GREAT FALLS TO HAVRE FROM  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO ABOUT  
0.75 INCHES. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW  
IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL THE KINGS HILL AREAS WILL HAVE A  
SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES, BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW  
PROBABILITY OF AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD  
EXCEED 8 INCHES. THE EARLIER THE SNOW CHANGES TO SNOW, THE  
PROBABILITY OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASE. BRUSDA  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
04/06Z TAF PERIOD  
 
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE THROUGH THE DAY ON  
SUNDAY AS CLOUDS LOWER AND RAIN SHOWERS (AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS)  
DEVELOP, STARTING IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA BEFORE SPREADING  
NORTHWARD TO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE AROUND KEKS, KBZN, AND KWYS, WHERE SOME HAIL TO A HALF  
INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE. LUDWIG  
 
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION  
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
GTF 47 70 39 49 / 0 30 100 80  
CTB 46 57 37 54 / 30 50 90 40  
HLN 48 70 41 52 / 10 70 100 80  
BZN 41 72 39 48 / 0 60 90 80  
WYS 29 70 35 51 / 0 30 70 50  
DLN 41 71 37 49 / 10 70 90 50  
HVR 46 73 39 57 / 0 10 90 70  
LWT 48 70 37 43 / 0 20 70 90  
 
 
   
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MDT MONDAY FOR  
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.  
 
 
 
 
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS  
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