386
FXUS65 KTFX 052346
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- IT WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
- SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 253 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SKIES
WILL CLEAR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOW RISK FOR FOG TO FORM ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING UP. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND SCENARIOS SECTION FOR DETAILS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP MORE WITH DRY WEATHER. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH. DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY THAT IS GENERATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AND SCENARIOS SECTION FOR DETAILS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN IT WILL STOP SNOWING IN LEWISTOWN.
DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY CURRENTLY, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED THROUGH 5 PM TODAY FOR THE LOWER-ELEVATION OF FERGUS
COUNTY. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON IF IT WILL CLEAR ENOUGH
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR FOG TO FORM ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA.
FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY THERE IS A 10 - 30% CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SUNDAY CLUSTERS AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH. IF IT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY THAT
WILL REDUCE THE RISK FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. A THIS TIME, ON
SUNDAY THERE IS A 10 - 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. -IG
AVIATION
06/00Z TAF PERIOD
RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MOSTLY FOR AREAS
EAST AND SOUTH OF BOZEMAN, BUT THIS DOES INCLUDE AREAS NEAR ENNIS
AND WEST YELLOWSTONE. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z TUE. THE MAIN CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SOME AREAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT COULD GET
SOME PERIODS OF DENSE FOG, AS SKIES ARE PROGGED TO CLEAR OUT THE
MOST IN THAT REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUE. BRUSDA
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED
REGIONAL AVIATION WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 31 59 38 74 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 28 61 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 33 60 37 75 / 30 10 0 0
BZN 30 53 31 72 / 80 10 0 0
WYS 27 59 28 65 / 70 10 0 10
DLN 30 53 33 70 / 70 10 0 0
HVR 30 65 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 29 52 33 70 / 50 20 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ELKHORN
AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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