042
FXUS65 KTFX 061803
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1203 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
- ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA
THE PAST FEW DAYS, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM UP. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP MORE
WITH DRY WEATHER. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH. AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT, WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SUNDAY: ON SUNDAY CLUSTERS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH. IF
IT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY THAT WILL REDUCE THE
RISK FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. A THIS TIME, ON SUNDAY THERE IS A 10 -
30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA, AND ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. -IG/ML
AVIATION
06/18Z TAF
VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA, RETREATING WITH TIME... LEADING TO
VARIABLE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY LIMITED TO 10-20 KTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SPARE FOR A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS. SPEEDS DIMINISH TO
5-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEATHER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING OFFERS VFR DECKS WHICH WILL CLEAR AND PULL EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... WITH SKC ALREADY IN THE OBS ACROSS
THE HI-LINE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY
PULLS WINDS SOUTHERLY, OR SOME VARIATION OF, BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. -CASEY
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 59 37 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 61 34 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 59 37 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 52 32 72 42 / 20 0 0 0
WYS 56 28 65 33 / 20 0 10 0
DLN 54 33 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 64 37 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 53 32 70 46 / 20 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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