573
FXUS65 KTFX 070808
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
208 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY, WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
AT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY,
WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
- TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD, STRATIFORM TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION EVENT.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ELONGATED, LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE NUDGING EASTWARD TODAY, WHICH WILL KEEP A WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INTACT ACROSS THE REGION. A BUILDING TROUGH OFF TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL MAKE THIS FLOW
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED HEADING TOWARD THE WEEKEND, OFFERING AT LEAST
LOW-END OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, LARGELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA.
AT THE SURFACE THE CONCERN TODAY LIES IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN
LEE OF TERRAIN IN AB THAT WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT OUT TOWARD THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK WAVE TRAVERSING
THROUGH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THURSDAY, YIELDING A
SHIFT TO A BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND, MOSTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT DOES LOOK TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A SOURCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA EXHIBIT
RELATIVELY DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE, SUGGESTING
WIND WOULD BE A THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM. THE LACK
OF SHEAR AND MEAGER INSTABILITY MAKES FOR A LOWER CONCERN FOR HAIL
THURSDAY.
TROUGHING WELL OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL - JUST A LOW-END OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
TROUGHING BECOMES MUCH MORE ORGANIZED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGHING WILL TREND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
SATURDAY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE MAIN
DAY OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY. A WAVE
EJECTING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST LOOKS
TO BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN A MORE
ROBUST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE, ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE
NEXT EJECTING WAVE FROM THE TROUGH.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL COOL THE REGION DOWN AND INTRODUCE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EVENT, THOUGH TIMING IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY HEAVIER PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION. -AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TIMING OF EJECTING WAVES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE INITIAL POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST. IF THESE WAVES
WERE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLY TIMED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, THE
CONCERN FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD DECREASE A BIT.
THEREAFTER THE GREATEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM THE MAIN
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A BIT ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. EMBEDDED WAVES
WITHIN THIS TROUGHING WILL DRIVE THE PERIODS OF HEAVIER STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION, WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNCLEAR (BOTH TIMING AND
LOCATION) UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND. -AM
AVIATION
07/06Z TAF
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, FEW TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, EXPECT SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL START TO PICK
UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR KCTB
AND KGTF.
-THOR/LUDWIG
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 75 47 75 42 / 0 0 10 0
CTB 74 46 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 76 48 77 45 / 20 20 20 20
BZN 72 42 74 41 / 20 20 20 20
WYS 64 32 67 32 / 20 20 40 20
DLN 70 42 73 41 / 20 20 20 20
HVR 78 47 78 39 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 70 47 72 43 / 10 10 30 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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