558
FXUS65 KTFX 300229
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
829 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
- A VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY, WITH A SPRING STORM THAT IS NOT
LOOKING AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
UPDATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-15 AS OF 8PM. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH INITIALLY WARM/DRY LOWER LEVELS STILL IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS. WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
AS WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING, WHICH MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS THROUGH NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT. FORECAST
IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH CONVECTION DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT AND
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOENISCH
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES
WESTERN MT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE STORMS WILL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING, AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE TROF, EXPECT A BIT
COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY OVER THE CWA, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT A BIGGER CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TO
BEGIN. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MT BY
THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL ON SUNDAY, BUT
A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY, THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN MOST
AREAS. OVERALL, POPS REMAIN HIGH ON MONDAY, BUT SOME DECREASE IN
POPS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
GFS HAS COME IN DRIER. SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH, REDUCING SOME IMPACTS.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY, EXPECT A SLOW TRANSITION BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVERALL WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
LATER NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FOR SATURDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S FOR
MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WITH THIS BEING ONE OF THE WARMER
DAYS, SOME EARLY SEASON IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE NOT
ACCLIMATED TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES YET.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY. OVERALL, THE
AMOUNT OF QPF FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS DECREASED, AND NOW
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. WITH THE
STORM SYSTEM STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, ADJUSTMENTS ARE STILL LIKELY.
BRUSDA
AVIATION
30/00Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GREATEST THREAT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF RAINFALL WILL BE THROUGH 04Z AT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST OR
NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOENISCH
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL
AVIATION WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 53 78 51 91 / 30 0 0 0
CTB 51 78 48 90 / 30 0 0 0
HLN 53 81 53 92 / 30 0 0 0
BZN 50 78 47 88 / 30 0 0 0
WYS 40 76 38 80 / 30 10 0 0
DLN 49 77 48 87 / 20 0 0 0
HVR 55 80 49 92 / 40 0 0 0
LWT 52 72 49 84 / 10 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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