757
FXUS65 KTFX 311049
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
449 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE HOT (THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOR
MOST AREAS) AND DRY TODAY.
- THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING UP TO END THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 319 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
TODAY THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES, HOT
TEMPERATURES (THE HOTTEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOR MOST AREAS), AND
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SUNDAY MORNING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE
COLD FRONT NOT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
LIGHTNING, STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS (58 MPH OR GREATER), AND
SMALL HAIL TO LARGE HAIL (1 INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER).
ON MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE WILL BE MOSTLY UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WITH PASSING UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTING NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90 DEGREES OR GREATER TODAY IS
GREATER THAN 80% ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND IN THE
HELENA VALLEY. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY IS 30 - 50%
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LEWISTOWN TO HELENA TO BUTTE LINE. THERE IS
A 5 - 20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THAT LINE ON SUNDAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (5% CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AND A 5% CHANCE FOR HAIL 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER OR GREATER)FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A 20 - 50% CHANCE
FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LEWISTOWN TO HELENA LINE. ON MONDAY THERE IS A 25 - 60% CHANCE FOR
A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
DOWN TO I-90. ON MONDAY IN FERGUS AND MEAGHER COUNTY THERE IS A 45
- 70% CHANCE FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER. -IG
AVIATION
31/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH NO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. TRANSIENT RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. - MOLDAN
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL
AVIATION WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 91 55 71 47 / 0 10 40 60
CTB 89 49 68 41 / 0 10 10 60
HLN 91 58 77 49 / 0 0 50 50
BZN 88 52 78 46 / 0 0 70 80
WYS 79 44 77 42 / 0 0 50 70
DLN 86 49 78 46 / 0 0 60 40
HVR 91 54 73 46 / 0 10 20 40
LWT 83 55 70 44 / 0 0 50 90
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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