714
FXUS65 KTFX 251434
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
834 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
TODAY IT WILL BE WARM WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ALONG THE HI-LINE. FOR THE UPDATE POPS WERE INCREASED ALONG THE
HI-LINE TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE RE-RUN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. -IG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 430 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
BRINGING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
KEEP THINGS GOING, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE AND
WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CORRESPOND
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE
TRANSITION PERIOD FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GIVING WAY TO GENERAL WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY:
GENERALLY WEAK DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. OTHERWISE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY:
SPC HAS CONTINUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES
AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF HILL, CHOUTEAU, AND JUDITH
BASIN COUNTIES. OVERALL, THE SETUP IS A TRUE TO FORM MARGINAL
RISK. MLCAPE AND SHEAR ARE WITHIN THE RANGE OF WHAT TYPICALLY
KICKS OFF A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING
FACTOR THAT GIVES PAUSE TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE MORNING THIS MAY BE WHAT KEEPS THE AFTERNOON FROM
GETTING TOO FEISTY. ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOULD THE MORNING CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT, THERE IS CONTINUING SUGGESTION FROM A FEW OF THE CAMS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS MAY EVEN EXTEND INTO
EASTERN CASCADE COUNTY BEYOND WHERE THE CURRENT MARGINAL RISK IS
LOCATED. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH FRIDAY HAVING MORE OF A FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND SATURDAY BEING MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF GALLATIN AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH DAYS IS QUITE LOW WITH MOST SHOWERS
STAYING ON THE MORE BENIGN SIDE OF THINGS. -THOR
AVIATION
25/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY TODAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY BUT ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TURN TO MORE
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVENING.
HOENISCH
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 84 54 81 55 / 10 20 40 20
CTB 79 53 76 53 / 20 20 20 0
HLN 83 55 80 54 / 10 20 40 20
BZN 84 49 84 50 / 10 0 20 20
WYS 72 36 75 39 / 10 0 10 10
DLN 78 49 80 48 / 10 10 30 10
HVR 85 55 84 54 / 20 20 20 20
LWT 79 52 79 51 / 10 20 40 40
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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