160
FXUS65 KTFX 260228
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
828 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
- IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS, ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. MOST SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 OR 40 MPH, BUT ONE ISOLATED STORM DID PRODUCE A WIND GUST OF 58
MPH NEAR PENDROY. OVERALL, EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING, WITH
A FEW MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND DAY BREAK ONCE AGAIN.
ON THURSDAY, A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST HREF MODEL AS SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE THU
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALL BE A BIT DEPENDENT THOUGH
ON SOME MORNING CLEARING AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS DIMINISH. THE
CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE A BIT,
SHOULD WE HOLD ONTO THE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 653 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MONTANA THERE WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ON SUNDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL WARM UP TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WHICH WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES UP FURTHER. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (5% CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER) ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-
90 EXCLUDING GLACIER COUNTY TOMORROW. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A 20 - 50%
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY
87/MONTANA HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. ON SATURDAY THERE IS A 15 - 35%
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THERE IS A 10 - 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON TUESDAY THERE IS A 20
- 50% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
ONE SCENARIO IS THAT ACROSS THE AREA THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COOL DOWN FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SCENARIO IS THAT IT REMAINS HOT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. -IG
AVIATION
26/00Z TAF PERIOD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AROUND 12Z ON THU MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z ON THU.
SOME STORMS ON THU AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE STRONG ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS. BRUSDA
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 53 82 54 80 / 30 40 20 20
CTB 52 76 53 73 / 20 40 10 10
HLN 54 81 55 80 / 10 50 20 30
BZN 50 85 50 83 / 0 30 10 20
WYS 36 75 38 74 / 0 10 10 10
DLN 48 79 49 81 / 10 30 10 10
HVR 54 85 55 82 / 10 20 20 10
LWT 52 80 51 76 / 10 60 30 40
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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