008
FXUS65 KTFX 270255
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
FORECAST AND AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
- GRADUALLY DRYING OUT AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DECREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
- TEMPERATURES RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
UPDATED FORECAST IS OUT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
HAVE EXITED OUR CWA FOR THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER. THE PRECIP DIMINISHES A BIT AROUND MIDNIGHT,
BUT THEN REDEVELOPS TOWARDS 5 AM FRI BETWEEN HELENA AND GREAT
FALLS. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LIGHTER
INTENSITY EVENT WHEN COMPARED TODAY. OVERALL, OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
ON TRACK. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 300 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
OF WHICH WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 OR 60 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THE STORMS. WITH THIS SAID, THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN, AS CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WAS A BIT MORE STUBBORN THAN
FORECAST, WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE EROSION OF A CAP THAT MAY
INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AS OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
INCREASING NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY ARE ABLE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA, AND WHILE I DO
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD, THEIR STRENGTH AND
ORGANIZATION MAY BE HAMPERED BY A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION (CIN, ALSO KNOWN AS A CAPPING INVERSION) THAT REMAINS
THANKS TO SOME STUBBORN CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH THIS
SAID, DCAPE (A MEASURE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AIR TO BE COOLED BY
RAINFALL) IS QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH INDICATES THAT
SOME SPORADIC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF A STRONGER STORM. LUDWIG
AVIATION
27/06Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
MOST SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS BETWEEN HELENA AND
GREAT FALLS AFTER 11Z FRI, WITH A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS
REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE
OBSCURED FOR SHORT TIMES BY PASSING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BRUSDA
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 55 81 51 79 / 30 30 0 0
CTB 54 73 49 73 / 10 10 0 10
HLN 54 81 53 79 / 30 40 0 0
BZN 50 85 49 82 / 20 30 10 10
WYS 39 75 40 74 / 0 20 10 20
DLN 49 81 47 81 / 10 20 10 10
HVR 56 83 54 80 / 30 10 0 10
LWT 51 75 51 75 / 50 40 20 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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