786
FXUS65 KTFX 280800
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
200 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE HI LINE THIS AFTERNOON.
- THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AND A SLIGHT WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK RETURN WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A MINI DISTURBANCE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
HI-LINE REGION. WEAK CAPE AND SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS SUB-SEVERE
TODAY. SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY AND
SLIGHTLY WARM UP TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY,
BROAD TROUGHING WITH AN OPENING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IN CALIFORNIA
WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE IN THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER-AIR
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THESE DAILY CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY STAY
UNDER 0.05", WITH UP TO 0.10" WITH A HEAVIER SHOWER. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DRIER PERIOD TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE'S A 50-90%
CHANCE FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES EXTENDING FROM THE BOZEMAN VALLEY
THROUGH THE HELENA VALLEY, THEN THROUGH AND ALONG THE MISSOURI
AND MILK RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AFTER WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NEXT WEEK, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
STRONGER STORMS WITH CONVECTION. -WILSON
AVIATION
28/06Z TAF PERIOD
A PASSING SHORTWAVE WITHIN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING VARIABLE
MID- AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY BETWEEN 28/20 AND 29/05Z. WITH MID- TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD BASES AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY LOOKING TO
BE FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
- RCG
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 77 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 72 47 77 49 / 50 20 0 0
HLN 79 50 82 52 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 82 46 82 47 / 10 0 0 0
WYS 75 37 75 36 / 10 20 0 0
DLN 78 43 78 46 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 80 50 80 50 / 20 30 0 0
LWT 72 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page