371  
FXUS65 KTFX 281729  
AFDTFX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT  
1129 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ALONG THE HI LINE THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
- THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AND A SLIGHT WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES  
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
- DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK RETURN WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
/ISSUED 1005 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025/  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. STILL EXPECTING  
A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE  
HI-LINE, BUT THAT IS COVERED WELL IN THE EXISTING FORECAST. LUDWIG  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
/ISSUED 1005 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025/  
 
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:  
 
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY  
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A MINI DISTURBANCE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL  
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE  
HI-LINE REGION. WEAK CAPE AND SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS SUB-SEVERE  
TODAY. SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE  
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY AND  
SLIGHTLY WARM UP TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY,  
BROAD TROUGHING WITH AN OPENING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IN CALIFORNIA  
WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE IN THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER-AIR  
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THESE DAILY CHANCES  
OF PRECIPITATION WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE.  
 
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:  
 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY STAY  
UNDER 0.05", WITH UP TO 0.10" WITH A HEAVIER SHOWER. MODELS HAVE  
BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DRIER PERIOD TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE  
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE'S A 50-90%  
CHANCE FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES EXTENDING FROM THE BOZEMAN VALLEY  
THROUGH THE HELENA VALLEY, THEN THROUGH AND ALONG THE MISSOURI  
AND MILK RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION AFTER WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES.  
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR  
NEXT WEEK, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME  
STRONGER STORMS WITH CONVECTION. -WILSON  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
28/18Z TAF PERIOD  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.  
AT THE KWYS TERMINAL THERE IS A 10 - 15% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
BETWEEN 29/00Z AND 29/02Z. AT THE KCTB AND KHVR TERMINALS THERE IS A  
15 - 50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 28/19Z AND  
29/02Z. ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TAF  
PERIOD THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS  
TAF PERIOD THERE WILL INSTANCES OF MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ACROSS  
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. -IG  
 
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION  
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
GTF 77 49 80 52 / 10 0 0 0  
CTB 72 47 77 49 / 50 20 0 0  
HLN 79 50 82 52 / 10 0 0 0  
BZN 82 46 82 47 / 10 0 0 0  
WYS 75 37 75 36 / 10 20 0 0  
DLN 78 43 78 46 / 10 0 0 0  
HVR 80 50 80 50 / 20 30 0 0  
LWT 72 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS  
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