413
FXUS65 KTFX 290622
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1222 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- TURNING WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH MANY LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS
SEEING TEMPERATURES EXCEED 90°
- DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING TO
RETURN AROUND MIDWEEK
UPDATE
/ISSUED 758 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO NUDGE EASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. BEFORE THOSE EFFECTS BEGIN TO BE
FELT, TROUGHING WITH AXIS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MT IS RESULTING
IN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE ARE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE HI-LINE AND IN THE WEST
YELLOWSTONE AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO TREND WARMER SUNDAY AS THE RIDGING BUILDS IN, WITH A DRY
PERIOD DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT LEAST MONDAY. OVERALL, MINIMAL
CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING - JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. -AM
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 758 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ASIDE FROM A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA, THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER DRY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH WESTERN UNITED
STATES. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB, WITH MANY AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
90S BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA UNTIL AROUND FRIDAY. MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY,
WITH CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK: CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A PERIOD OF
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF NEXT WEEK THANKS
TO A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. OVERALL, THERE DOESN’T APPEAR TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES, AS MODEL SPREADS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN 5 DEGREES OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA. BIGGEST AREA OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN REGARDS
TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND WEDNESDAY, AS A WELL TIMED
SHOWER OR STORM MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK: AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SNEAK
INTO THE PLAINS OF MONTANA NEXT WEEK, THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL HELP
TO ADD SOME INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EVERY DAY FROM WEDNESDAY.
THERE DOES REMAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS, AS THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAK
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WITH THAT
SAID, A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD MUSTER ENOUGH STRENGTH AND
ORGANIZATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO FORM.
LUDWIG
AVIATION
29/06Z TAF PERIOD
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. ASIDE FROM
A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND VFR FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. - RCG
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
AVIATION
29/00Z TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING ALONG THE HI-LINE AND IN THE KWYS AREA, BENIGN
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
IN. -AM
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 51 89 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 49 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 52 90 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 46 93 55 95 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 34 84 41 86 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 46 89 52 89 / 0 0 0 10
HVR 49 90 57 95 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 48 84 55 87 / 0 0 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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