274
FXUS65 KTFX 302324
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
524 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TOMORROW, MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-90 AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, EVEN AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EARLY THIS WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER HIGHS JUST SHY OF OR JUST OVER 90° TODAY,
MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS RIDGE, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MANAGE TO POP UP TOMORROW, MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-90. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH ASHORE OF THE
WEST COAST, HELPING TO PUSH SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRIES TO SNEAK IN FROM THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE EITHER DAY THANKS TO SOME WEAK SHEAR AND A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BUT
ALSO RESULT IN NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
INCLUDING ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: AT THE MOMENT, CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOW
TO MEDIUM (30-50%), AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SHEAR NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE.
HOWEVER, IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP, A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ON TUESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA, AND THIS THREAT EXPANDS TO INCLUDE
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY IS SLIGHTLY MORE CERTAIN, BUT
THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY BE SLIGHTLY
TOO LATE TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED OUTFLOW SHOULD THEY COLLAPSE.
LUDWIG
AVIATION
01/00Z TAF PERIOD
THE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-90. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MEANTIME, BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN ALL AREAS. -AM
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 56 93 58 93 / 0 0 0 20
CTB 51 88 55 91 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 58 95 58 89 / 0 0 10 40
BZN 53 96 55 93 / 0 10 20 30
WYS 41 86 45 83 / 0 20 20 40
DLN 52 90 52 87 / 0 20 20 40
HVR 53 95 58 98 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 54 88 58 91 / 0 0 10 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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