263
FXUS65 KTFX 102102
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
WITH THAT TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S, INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR ABOUT
~500 J/KG OF CAPE TO BUILD IN. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AT THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THURSDAY, BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL MT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30- 40KTS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IF THE REGION BUILDS IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY. IF IT DOES,
THEN GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE A
CONCERN.
MODELS HINT AT A CLOSED LOW FORMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK, THE ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE NOTICEABLY ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
THOUGH, AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES, BUT DETAILS ARE MURKY.
-WILSON
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY:
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
ANY OF THESE STORMS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO BECOME A PROBLEM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT THAT IF THINGS
GET GOING, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERING OPINIONS AMONGST THE MODELS. IF
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS TO BE BELIEVED, THEN THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
FAIL TO MAKE IT OVER INTO OUR AREA. THE NAM STILL PLACES SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS. BUT OVERALL, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
IS PRETTY MARGINAL.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY:
A GOOD PORTION OF HOW THURSDAY PANS OUT WILL HINGE ON WHAT OCCURS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IF THE MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
HANG ON THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING IT WILL CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. IF SKIES CLEAR UP THROUGH THE MID MORNING THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA. OVERALL, THE GREATER THREAT AND MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS FURTHER INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH IN IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA. BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH FUTURE UPDATES. -THOR
AVIATION
10/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE KGTF AND KHLN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11/00Z AND THE 11/06Z THERE IS A 15 - 30% CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE KHVR AND KLWT TERMINALS
THERE IS A 15 - 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 11/00Z AND 11/07Z.
AT THE KCTB TERMINAL DURING THERE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD
THERE IS A 10 - 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE
KHVR TERMINAL THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN NOW AND 10/18Z. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR, AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS.
DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. -IG
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 52 77 53 72 / 30 40 60 60
CTB 49 75 50 72 / 20 40 50 50
HLN 52 77 51 73 / 20 60 50 60
BZN 50 79 44 73 / 10 50 20 40
WYS 39 69 34 67 / 30 60 20 50
DLN 46 74 44 69 / 10 50 20 30
HVR 53 77 54 72 / 10 40 70 60
LWT 52 73 49 71 / 20 70 50 60
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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