731
FXUS65 KTFX 110845
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN FERGUS AND BLAINE COUNTIES AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT OF WEEK.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
TODAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY
AND BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. DUE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THERE WILL BE
GREATER COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. ON FRIDAY
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AND MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
A HEAVY DOWNPOUR, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH ABOUT SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TODAY THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN IF CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS
WILL END/CLEAR EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING WOULD ALLOW FOR THE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY TO
BUILD UP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
TODAY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (5%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT) FOR FERGUS COUNTY AND EASTERN BLAINE COUNTY. TODAY THERE IS A
15 - 40% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
ON FRIDAY THE SPC ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (5% CHANCE FOR HAIL ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT) FOR FERGUS
COUNTY. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A 20 - 40% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SATURDAY
THERE IS A 15 - 35% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A 20 - 30% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA THERE IS A
15 - 40% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER. ON SATURDAY
ACROSS HILL, CHOTEAU, JUDITH BASIN, BLAINE, AND FERGUS COUNTIES
THERE IS A 15 - 30% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER. -IG
AVIATION
11/06Z TAF PERIOD
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST MT TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, PARTICULARLY
KLWT AND KHVR. MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BRIEFLY CREATE MVFR CONDITONS IF THEY DEVELOP RIGHT OVER THE
TERMINAL.-WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 77 52 76 51 / 40 50 50 30
CTB 76 48 74 48 / 40 30 40 30
HLN 77 51 74 51 / 60 50 60 30
BZN 77 44 75 45 / 60 20 30 20
WYS 69 34 68 33 / 60 10 40 20
DLN 75 42 70 43 / 50 20 30 20
HVR 79 53 75 51 / 50 60 50 40
LWT 73 49 73 48 / 70 40 60 50
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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