465
FXUS65 KTFX 122028
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
228 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
- IT WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA.
- TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IT WILL WARM UP WITH DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTH CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON.
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THERE WILL BE A PRECIPITATION LULL BETWEEN
NOW AND THIS EVENING. SUNDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS ROUND OF SNOWFALL WILL PRIMARILY EFFECT
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NOON ON
MONDAY.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT FOR
THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO WARM UP ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER NORTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER NORTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP FURTHER WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TOMORROW THERE IS A 50 TO 80% CHANCE FOR 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS ADJACENT
TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT (INCLUDING THE HELENA VALLEY) AND
ALONG THE US HIGHWAY 87/MONTANA HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR BETWEEN GREAT
FALLS AND HOBSON. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TOMORROW THERE IS
GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR 8 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. AS A RESULT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AND OR A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE ISSUED FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS.
SEE THE TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THERE IS A GREATER THAN A
60% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR GREATER ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. IG
AVIATION
12/18Z TAF PERIOD
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MOST NOTABLY AT THE KGTF,
KHLN, AND KWYS TERMINALS WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT. MVFR/LOW-VFR CONDITONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE 1218/1318 TAF PERIOD; HOWEVER, PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AREAS AND BENEATH THE HEAVIEST BURST
OF PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRETY OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH 12/21Z TO 13/00Z. - MOLDAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 25 34 25 43 / 90 70 20 20
CTB 19 32 23 41 / 70 70 20 10
HLN 24 36 26 46 / 90 70 30 30
BZN 25 41 24 50 / 60 10 20 30
WYS 17 48 24 54 / 30 10 40 60
DLN 29 44 26 51 / 40 10 20 40
HVR 21 40 24 51 / 40 40 0 10
LWT 23 36 23 48 / 70 40 20 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR ELKHORN AND
BOULDER MOUNTAINS-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GATES OF
THE MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND
EASTERN TETON-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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