025
FXUS65 KTFX 142345
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING, MOSTLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 309 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE WEST YELLOWSTONE AREA AS WELL. OVERALL, PRECIP DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
DEVELOPS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER HIGH, ABOVE 7000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT LIKELY TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
UNTIL SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUN/MON...INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT TONIGHT. FOR WED/THU...THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND AND JUST
EAST OF BIG SKY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE,
MOSTLY ABOVE 7000 FEET. SINCE MOST/ALL OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
ABOVE PASS LEVEL WITH THIS EVENT, NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME.
FOR SUNDAY, THE GFS/EC HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE EC IS MUCH QUICKER, THUS COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS WARMER/DRIER ON SUNDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE 70 DEGREES. WITH
CONFIDENCE LOW ON EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME, THE BLEND OF THE
NBM IS ON TRACK. BRUSDA
AVIATION
15/00Z TAF PERIOD
MVFR CLOUDS HAND AROUND IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS IN MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT BEFORE PATCHY FOG/PRECIPITATION
REINTRODUCES THEM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG
AFFECTING TERMINALS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT IS NOT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST TERMINALS WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
CONDTIONS IF IT DOES SET UP. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LOOK
TO BRING IFR CEILINGS AT TIMES AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW/RAIN
AND SNOW MIX WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST MT IN THE MORNING BEFORE
SWITCHING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION PERSISTS
DUE TO LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 27 47 35 53 / 10 30 60 50
CTB 22 49 31 58 / 0 10 20 10
HLN 28 50 35 53 / 20 50 60 60
BZN 29 50 33 47 / 50 60 70 80
WYS 28 50 28 44 / 80 90 80 90
DLN 31 48 33 50 / 40 60 60 50
HVR 25 49 35 55 / 10 50 60 50
LWT 27 49 33 45 / 40 60 70 80
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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