804
FXUS65 KTFX 060547
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1047 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
- PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 823 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025/
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS (GUSTS OVER 58 MPH) IN
AND AROUND THE CUT BANK AREA, I HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A WARNING. CONFIDENCE HAS ALSO GONE UP SLIGHTLY IN JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY, BUT WITH CONFIDENCE ONLY AROUND 50%, IT FALLS A BIT SHORT
OF THE 80% CONFIDENCE REQUIRED FOR A WARNING AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT CONFIDENCE COULD INCREASE
ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WARNING. LUDWIG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 823 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER,
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MOST IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WIND ON THURSDAY:
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO HAVE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA BUT UPDATED HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE TOOK A LOT OF THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS OVER 55
MPH OUT OF THE EQUATION WITH SOME PORTIONS OF BLAINE COUNTY NOW
ONLY HAVING A 10-20% CHANCE. WHILE THE GENERAL SETUP AND 700MB
FLOW STILL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
HI-LINE, THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN AND, IF THEY DO, IT WILL BE ON A MORE
ISOLATED BASIS. STRONG WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HI-LINE BUT WIDESPREAD
OBSERVANCE OF HIGHER WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FURTHER WEST, THERE IS STILL A CONCERN FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 65
MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT INCLUDING CUT BANK. AS SUCH THE
HIGH WIND WATCH WAS KEPT WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING BEING MADE
BASED ON UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE.
ELSEWHERE, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN
THE IMMEDIATE AREA EAST OF THE SNOWIES AND JUDITHS WHICH IS TO SAY
THAT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS IS LOW AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS
AN ISOLATED ONE TIME GUST IN THE RURAL PORTIONS OF EASTERN FERGUS
COUNTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE REALLY ONLY EXPECTED AT THE PEAKS
AND NO HIGH WIND PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
THE ONE AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IS THE HWY
200 CORRIDOR IN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP, THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF FUNNELING
IN BETWEEN THE LITTLE BELTS AND HIGHWOODS WHICH COULD SQUEEZE OUT
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THE ONLY REASON THIS ZONE WAS NOT ADDED
TO THE WATCH IS BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LESS THAN
30%. THAT BEING SAID, THIS IS THE WILD CARD OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AND SHOULD THE MODELS OR OBSERVATIONS START TO TREND UPWARD THEN A
WATCH/WARNING MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
WIND ON FRIDAY:
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME AREAS OF CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SEEING GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTY AS WELL AS THE BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS. AS IT STANDS THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN 50+ MPH
GUSTS ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA TO JUSTIFY
ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS TIME. BUT SHOULD THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARDS STRONGER WINDS A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
SNOW LEVELS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE AT AROUND 5500-6000FT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000FT. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION ROADS AND PASSES IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA COULD GET A LITTLE
SLIPPERY AT TIMES WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST ROUND
OF SNOW.
THERE WILL BE A 6-10 HOUR LULL IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
THE COLDER AIR WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 4000FT BY THE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE SECOND ROUND THERE IS
MORE OF A CONCERN FOR IMPACTS AT PASS LEVEL WITH MARIAS PASS
POTENTIALLY PICKING UP A COUPLE INCHES AND A DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE AT MONIDA PASS. ADDITIONALLY, HWY 191 SOUTH OF BOZEMAN MAY
SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES TOWARDS THE BIG SKY AREA.
IMPACTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR SO NO
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LINGERS IN THE AREA, THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA LATE IN THE EVENING ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, NOT ENOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO
WARRANT ANY CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. BUT SOME SLIPPERY ROADS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE REGION. -THOR
AVIATION
06/06Z TAF PERIOD
WINDS ALOFT AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE INCREASES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN DUE TO
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT PEAK WINDS WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY.
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KCTB AND UP TO 40-45KTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS DECREASE A BIT THURSDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FOR MAINLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST
OF OF THE MOUNTAINS, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO TERMINALS. -WILSON
THE KWYS TAF WILL NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL AIRPORT OPERATIONS RESUME
NEXT SPRING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 42 55 38 52 / 20 0 10 10
CTB 33 51 32 48 / 20 10 10 20
HLN 38 53 33 49 / 20 20 10 50
BZN 35 54 31 50 / 10 20 10 60
WYS 29 42 25 38 / 60 50 50 90
DLN 33 50 29 47 / 10 10 10 40
HVR 36 59 31 52 / 30 0 0 40
LWT 36 54 31 51 / 10 0 0 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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