103
FXUS65 KTFX 061527
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
827 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MT.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, MOSTLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- IT IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
TODAY IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH WINDS
PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY THERE WILL BE MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW AND
MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW/RAIN. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. FOR THE UPDATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WERE INCREASED TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. -IG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 402 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A WINDY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER MONTANA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AT TIMES, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MT FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IN THE CUT
BANK AREA, BUT A FEW OTHER WINDY SPOTS OVER CENTRAL MT AND ACROSS
BLAINE/FERGUS COUNTIES WILL ALSO HAVE SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS. THE
MOST FAVORED TIME FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO OCCUR WILL BE THE LATE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES WHERE THEY
COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT TODAY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ACROSS CENTRAL MT, THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FALLING AROUND HAVRE, HARLEM AND LEWISTOWN. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THIS
AREA, BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
FOR TEMPERATURES, THE WARM AIR WAS VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN, WITH MOST
AREAS NOT WARMING UP TO LATE YESTERDAY. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A BIT TODAY, AND GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES START TO COOL A BIT EACH DAY FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS COULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY MONDAY. SOME FORECAST MODELS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY,
AND BRING IN SOME PRECIPITATION, WHILE OTHER CONTINUE THE DRY
TREND. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE FORECAST NOW AS WE GET INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND/SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE
CUT BANK AREA FOR TODAY, THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL
CONTINUE. THE PROBABILITY IS LOWER TODAY FOR HIGH WINDS IN JUDITH
BASIN, FERGUS AND BLAINE COUNTIES, THUS NO WIND STATEMENT FOR
THESE AREAS FOR TODAY AT THIS TIME.
ON FRIDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AROUND CUT BANK,
WITH ADDITIONAL WIND STATEMENTS LIKELY FOR THIS AREA. THERE IS
ALSO SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT ACROSS BLAINE/FERGUS COUNTIES
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THUS
A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
IN TERMS OF SNOW, AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN
TOMORROW ON PASSES ALONG THE DIVIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT. WITH SOME MELTING, NO ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR THE PASSES. ABOVE PASS LEVEL, AND MOSTLY
NEAR THE DIVIDE, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BRUSDA
AVIATION
06/12Z TAF PERIOD
PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
PRECIPITATION TODAY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT. THIS PRECIP WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES. BRUSDA
THE KWYS TAF WILL NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL AIRPORT OPERATIONS RESUME
NEXT SPRING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 56 39 52 29 / 0 20 10 10
CTB 53 31 47 27 / 10 20 20 10
HLN 53 34 49 28 / 20 20 60 0
BZN 55 30 50 22 / 20 10 70 10
WYS 42 25 39 11 / 70 40 100 20
DLN 50 29 46 18 / 20 10 50 0
HVR 60 30 54 25 / 10 10 50 40
LWT 54 31 50 27 / 0 10 30 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW
4500FT-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
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