847
FXUS65 KTFX 070001
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
501 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MID MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
- THERE WILL BE MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWER-ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW AFFECTING SOME LOCATIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- IT WILL COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING UP SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 214 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK
IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. FRIDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL
WINDS IT WILL BE WINDY IN NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY EVENING A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY. ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE MOUNTAIN
SNOW WITH ISOLATED LOWER-ELEVATION LOCATIONS RECEIVING RAIN. DURING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING ABOUT SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE OF LIGHT SNOW IN HILL AND BLAINE COUNTY
SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-15 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
TUESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE IS GREATER THAN A
80% CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR.
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR
VISIBILITY LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FROM
NOW THROUGH 11 AM TOMORROW THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OR GREATER ALONG MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
GIVEN THIS PLUS THE DURATION OF THE SNOWFALL FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH 11 AM FRIDAY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD. FROM 11 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY THERE
IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOWFALL OR GREATER
ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
DUE TO WINDS BEING LOWER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE CUT BANK AREA WAS CANCELLED. ON FRIDAY THERE
IS GREATER THAN A 70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH
OR GREATER ALONG THE ROCKY FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-15. ON
FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTH- CENTRAL MONTANA THERE IS
A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH. AS A RESULT OF
THIS PLUS A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING A
HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS,
BLAINE COUNTY, AND MOST OF FERGUS COUNTY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM
SATURDAY. IG
AVIATION
07/00Z TAF PERIOD
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL HELP MIX THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN AS WELL
AS BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAKE PRECIPITATION A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE WINDS WARM UP TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE
BRIEF INSTANCES OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
FRONT MIXES DOWN THOSE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. -WILSON
THE KWYS TAF WILL NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL AIRPORT OPERATIONS RESUME
NEXT SPRING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 39 50 29 48 / 10 20 10 0
CTB 31 47 27 47 / 20 20 10 0
HLN 35 48 28 47 / 10 60 0 0
BZN 30 49 21 44 / 10 60 0 0
WYS 25 39 11 37 / 30 90 10 0
DLN 30 45 18 42 / 10 50 0 0
HVR 30 53 26 45 / 10 60 40 10
LWT 31 50 28 44 / 10 40 10 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW
4500FT-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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