938
FXUS65 KTFX 071051
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF BRIEF BUT INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS
MORNING.
- LOCALLY STRONG WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A POTENT SHORTWAVE THROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EMERGING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AB
AND TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE MT TONIGHT. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT. COOLING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 4000 FT ACROSS SW MT WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO SUPPORT BRIEF BUT INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES INITIALLY AS THE
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO NW BEAVERHEAD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARILY CONCERN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AB BENEATH THE EMERGING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. STRONG
DOWNWARD MOTION IS EVIDENT IN EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
EASTERN WA FOLLOWING THIS WAVE, WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD
MIXING OF 50-55KT 700MB FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE EMERGING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT. AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL HELP SUSTAIN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MT AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WILL SEE
THE STRONGEST GUSTS TONIGHT AS A NORTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL (850MB) 40-
50KT WIND MAX DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSING NE MT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW ACROSS PRIMARILY HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS.
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS COOLER (NEAR SEASONAL)
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA COULD BRING PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES, EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON/TUE) AND AGAIN LATER
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR NW
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY WHERE THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL STILL HAVE SOME
ORGANIZATION WHILE CROSSING THE DIVIDE AND MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOWFALL RATES TO AROUND 1/2" PER HOUR. THE SHORT DURATION WILL
LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND POTENTIAL
FOR QUICK SLUSH ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES ARE A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY OVER CHIEF JOSEPH AND BIG HOLE PASSES.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-15
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT BEGINNING THIS MORNING, WHERE THERE IS A 60%
OR HIGHER PROBABILITY OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH. POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT AND HIGHEST GUST SPEEDS IS GREATEST IN THE
MID-LATE MORNING PERIOD.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
THERE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS WINDS MAY LIMIT
THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO AREAS ENHANCEMENT BY TERRAIN CLOSER TO THE
BEARS PAW, LITTLE ROCKIES, SNOWY AND JUDITH RANGES. HOENISCH
AVIATION
07/06Z TAF PERIOD
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL START TO MOVE IN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL HELP MIX THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN AS
WELL AS BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAKE PRECIPITATION A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
SOUTHWEST MT BEFORE THE WINDS WARM UP TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE
INSTANCES OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
MIXES DOWN THOSE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.-WILSON
THE KWYS TAF WILL NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL AIRPORT OPERATIONS RESUME
NEXT SPRING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 50 29 48 25 / 20 10 0 0
CTB 46 27 47 21 / 20 10 0 0
HLN 49 28 46 24 / 60 0 0 0
BZN 50 21 44 18 / 60 10 0 0
WYS 39 11 38 9 / 90 0 0 0
DLN 45 19 43 19 / 50 0 0 0
HVR 52 25 46 19 / 60 40 10 0
LWT 50 28 45 22 / 30 10 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE COUNTY
BELOW 5000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN
TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW
4500FT-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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