678
FXUS65 KTFX 072136
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
236 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS HILL AND BLAINE COUNTY WILL START
TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH,
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
BACK AND LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PASSING
SHORTWAVES MAY BRING PERIODS OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY LOOKING TO BE THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
HIGH WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN
PORTION NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
REGARDING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE BEARS PAW TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE
IS HOLDING THAT THE MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF BLAINE COUNTY WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE HIT OR MISS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO STAY
UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SLIPPERY ROADS
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED SO NO PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. -THOR
AVIATION
07/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, AND
KLWT TERMINALS DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS AT THE KCTB TERMINAL WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD. FROM NOW UNTIL 08/12Z THERE IS A
20 - 50% CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE KHVR TERMINAL. AFTER 08/00Z THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD THERE WILL BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. -IG
THE KWYS TAF WILL NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL AIRPORT OPERATIONS RESUME
NEXT SPRING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 49 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 28 47 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 28 47 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 21 44 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 11 38 11 45 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 19 43 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 26 49 19 48 / 30 10 0 0
LWT 27 45 22 53 / 10 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE COUNTY
BELOW 5000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN
TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-
EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL
COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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