224
FXUS65 KTFX 080201
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
701 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
UPDATE
A SHARP UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING FROM
FAR SW SK INTO NE MT THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM REMAIN GUSTY THIS EVENING, LARGELY EAST OF US-87, AND
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR AREAS IN SOUTHERN BLAINE AND FERGUS
COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION HELPS TRANSLATE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE THE PLAINS THROUGH 5 AM SATURDAY.
WHILE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR BLAINE
COUNTY AND VICINITY REMAINS THIS EVENING, IT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS FORCING MOVES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS IN THE BEARS PAW
ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TRENDS. -AM
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 441 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS HILL AND BLAINE COUNTY WILL START
TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH,
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
BACK AND LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PASSING
SHORTWAVES MAY BRING PERIODS OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY LOOKING TO BE THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
HIGH WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN
PORTION NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
REGARDING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE BEARS PAW TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE
IS HOLDING THAT THE MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF BLAINE COUNTY WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE HIT OR MISS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO STAY
UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SLIPPERY ROADS
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED SO NO PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. -THOR
AVIATION
08/00Z TAF PERIOD
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS,
WHICH LARGELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE KHVR
AND KLWT AREAS, WHERE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. AREAS WHERE SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WILL HAVE A
WINDOW FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL WINDS ALOFT
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE FOR LOW CLOUDS AROUND KHVR THIS
EVENING, WITH A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE
EVENING. -AM
THE KWYS TAF WILL NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL AIRPORT OPERATIONS RESUME
NEXT SPRING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 49 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 28 47 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 28 47 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 21 44 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 11 38 11 45 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 19 43 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 26 49 19 48 / 40 10 0 0
LWT 27 45 22 53 / 10 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL
COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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