905
FXUS65 KTFX 081527
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
827 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DECREASING WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH WITH A FEW WINDY PERIODS.
UPDATE
TODAY IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. FOR THE UPDATE THE DIURNALS WERE RE-RUN. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. -IG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 413 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
AND FEW SNOW SHOWERS CIRCULATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN
MT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY BENEATH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALOFT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS INLAND SUNDAY BUT IS SUPPRESSED BY TROUGHING
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE REBUILDING
AROUND MID-WEEK. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN FOR THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY MONDAY WITH
ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE COUPLET OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND LEE-SIDE TROUGHING ON MONDAY FAVORS STRONG WINDS MAINLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MTN FRONT, THOUGH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AND PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
SUPPORTS A BROAD 30-40% PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT MONDAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S NEXT WEEK WILL BE RUN ABOUT 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, WHICH ARE IN THE MID-40S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA BY MID-NOVEMBER. HOENISCH
AVIATION
08/12Z TAF PERIOD
GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MID-MORNING. LOWER CLOUD
CIELINGS NEAR THE KHVR TERMINAL WILL ALSO DECRESAE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ELSWHERE ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING WILL DISSPIPAE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOENISCH
THE KWYS TAF WILL NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL AIRPORT OPERATIONS RESUME
NEXT SPRING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 48 26 57 43 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 47 21 53 39 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 47 24 52 34 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 45 20 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 38 12 46 17 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 44 21 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 48 20 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 45 23 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page