783
FXUS65 KTFX 082020
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
120 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- IT WILL BE WINDY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-15.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING ABOUT SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
FLATTENS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-15 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
ON TUESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THERE WILL BE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF BREEZY
WINDS. THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS MONTANA.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON MONDAY THERE IS A 55 - 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55
MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-15. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
PLAINS WEST OF I-15 DUE TO CLOUD COVER INHIBITING MIXING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT BEING A HIGHER
CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING, A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED
AT THIS TIME. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR
HIGH WIND PRODUCTS. ON MONDAY THERE IS A 40 - 75% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON TUESDAY
THERE IS GREATER THAN A 40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH ACROSS MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. IG
AVIATION
08/18Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER VFR CLOUDS NEAR KLWT AND KHVR WILL THIN
OUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES; OTHERWISE, EXPECT PASSING MID-
AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITHIN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
BUT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE BREEZES MAY GUST UP TO 20 KTS
IN A FEW AREAS THROUGH 09/00Z. - RCG
THE KWYS TAF WILL NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL AIRPORT OPERATIONS RESUME
NEXT SPRING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 26 57 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 21 54 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 24 53 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 20 51 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 12 44 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 21 52 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 20 47 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 23 52 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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