864
FXUS65 KTFX 090209
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
709 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- IT WILL BE WINDY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-15.
UPDATE
DECREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN AND NEAR THE MILK RIVER
VALLEY LOOK TO COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION
TO RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN NOT MUCH ELSE IS GOING ON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, THIS WAS THE ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
-AM
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 346 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING ABOUT SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
FLATTENS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-15 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
ON TUESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THERE WILL BE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF BREEZY
WINDS. THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS MONTANA.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON MONDAY THERE IS A 55 - 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55
MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-15. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
PLAINS WEST OF I-15 DUE TO CLOUD COVER INHIBITING MIXING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT BEING A HIGHER
CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING, A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED
AT THIS TIME. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR
HIGH WIND PRODUCTS. ON MONDAY THERE IS A 40 - 75% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON TUESDAY
THERE IS GREATER THAN A 40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH ACROSS MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. IG
AVIATION
09/00Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE IS AROUND A 20%
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPING AT KHVR OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS
MAY END UP BEING A LIMITING FACTOR SO FOR NOW IT WAS LEFT OUT OF
THE TAF. -THOR
THE KWYS TAF WILL NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL AIRPORT OPERATIONS RESUME
NEXT SPRING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 26 57 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 21 54 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 24 53 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 20 51 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 12 44 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 21 52 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 20 47 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 23 52 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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