541
FXUS65 KTFX 130314
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
814 PM MST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS RETURN TOMORROW WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
UPDATED FORECAST IS OUT. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND WIND, TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH
MORE TONIGHT. THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST WAS FOR THURSDAY,
WITH THE HIGH WIND WATCH STARTING A BIT EARLIER ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE LATEST HRRR HAS STRONGER WINDS EARLIER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON STARTING FIRST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER,
THEN WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUS THE START TIMES WERE PUSHED UP A BIT ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY EVENING WHEN THE STRONG
WINDS ARRIVE IN THE CUT BANK AREA. WITH WINDS OF 70 TO 90 MPH
ALOFT, SOME WIND GUSTS OF 65 TO 85 MPH LOOK REASONABLE AT THE
SURFACE WITH THIS WIND EVENT. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 434 PM MST WED NOV 12 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE ONE
ADDITIONAL WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER DAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA TODAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING TROUGH RESULTS IN
A RIDGE BREAKDOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH MOST AREAS GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A FEW 60-75 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN PROGRESSES, WINDS WILL SPILL OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS FRIDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO THE WINDS. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, A FEW AREAS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR WITH
THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY, BUT MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA BY THE AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. WITH THIS FLOW OVERHEAD, A
PARADE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MAINLY SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: THE MOST IMPACTFUL AREA OF UNCERTAINTY
IS THE FORECASTED WIND EVENT THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. WHILE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
GUSTY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH, THE EXTENT OF HOW FAR EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THESE WINDS
REACH REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE SPLIT AROUND 50/50 AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WINDS OVER 60 MPH
WILL GET OUTSIDE THE CORE WINDY AREAS WHERE HIGH WIND CRITERIA IS
A BIT HIGHER, AND IF THOSE CORE AREAS WILL SEE 75 MPH. RIGHT NOW
IT SEEMS SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT BOTH THE CORE AREAS
WILL HIT 75 MPH AND THAT AREAS IN AND AROUND CUT BANK SEE WINDS
NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LUDWIG
AVIATION
13/00Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING RISK FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE TOWARD LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT. -AM
THE KWYS TAF WILL NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL AIRPORT OPERATIONS RESUME
NEXT SPRING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 42 68 51 60 / 0 0 10 20
CTB 37 63 43 51 / 0 0 20 30
HLN 38 65 44 57 / 0 0 30 50
BZN 34 65 40 59 / 0 0 20 50
WYS 26 51 31 44 / 10 0 30 70
DLN 34 61 38 56 / 0 0 30 40
HVR 32 66 45 58 / 0 0 0 20
LWT 39 66 46 60 / 0 0 0 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA.
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