902
FXUS65 KTFX 260751
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1251 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HI-LINE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH A CHANCE IT COULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
- A QUICK MOVING BAND OF SNOW MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA INCLUDING BOZEMAN PASS.
- MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE HI-LINE EAST OF CUT BANK WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SLICK
ROADS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. A BRIEF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY THE
MID AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND PHASES WITH
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHILE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTH-CENTRAL MT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL WAVE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY ARRIVES WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A COLDER AIRMASS AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SURGES SOUTHWARD FROM AB THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT MOUNTAIN RAGES.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND FOR MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
TWENTIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE AREA REMAINS UNDER COLD CYCLONIC
NW FLOW BETWEEN DEEP/LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLES IN THE EXACT
POSITION OF THESE FEATURES AND SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW. OVERALL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST, THOUGH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. HOENISCH/THOR
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FREEZING FOG ALONG THE HI-LINE:
DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HI-LINE THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE SAME AREAS EAST OF I-15. ONE OF THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THAT THE FREEZING FOG MAY LEAD TO A GLAZE
OF ICE ON SOME SURFACES CREATING SLIPPERY SIDEWALKS AND ROADS.
SNOW TODAY:
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA, IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
ALONG BOZEMAN PASS AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HIT RIGHT
AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE PASS.
ADDITIONALLY, PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE
BELTS INCLUDING KINGS HILL PASS WITH SIMILAR IMPACTS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SLIPPERY ROADS POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF
LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE THE MAIN SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND COLD THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 4
TO 8 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE WITH UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARDS ACROSS THE
REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
WARRANT ADDING IT TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH. SHOULD FUTURE MODEL
UPDATES SHOW GREATER PROBABILITIES FURTHER EAST THEN THE WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED AT A LATER TIME. -THOR
AVIATION
26/06Z TAF PERIOD
FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MILK RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH 15-18Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. THIS FOG WILL BRING VLIFR/LIFR CONDTIONS TO THE KHVR
TERMINAL THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
WEST THE FOG ADVECTS ACROSS THE HI-LINE (I.E. NEAR THE KCTB
TERMINAL). IN ADDITION TO THE FOG, LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PREDOMINATELY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE KEKS, KBZN,
KHLN, KGTF, AND KLWT TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-18Z WEDNESDAY AS SNOW
AND LOWERING CIGS OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH EVEN TEMPORARY
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS BENEATH MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -
MOLDAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 42 24 36 19 / 50 0 50 80
CTB 38 15 31 12 / 10 0 50 90
HLN 41 27 41 21 / 50 10 40 60
BZN 41 23 44 24 / 70 10 20 30
WYS 33 17 38 20 / 80 10 30 20
DLN 44 27 48 26 / 20 10 10 10
HVR 29 10 28 15 / 10 0 20 90
LWT 38 22 39 16 / 50 10 30 70
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR EASTERN
TOOLE AND LIBERTY-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD
MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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