426
FXUS65 KTFX 262128
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
228 PM MST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE HI-LINE.
- SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA LATE THURSDAY AND
INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA FRIDAY.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
- COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH A FEW
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FOR THE SAME HI-
LINE AREAS THAT SAW FOG THIS MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO EXPAND FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH STEADIER SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MT AS FRONT STALLS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW
INTENSIFIES ALONG THE WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH TODAY, NOW EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE HI-LINE. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH AREAS OF UPSLOPE-
ENHANCED SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT BEFORE ENDING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLDER AIRMASS SURGES SOUTH FROM AB
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
SPREADING THROUGH SOUTHWEST MT ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING
SNOW AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ADD TO POTENTIAL TRAVEL HAZARDS ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH OCCURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT BUT MAY NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.
THE COLD AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOW TWENTIES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
MODERATE SOME NEXT WEEK BUT AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS
WITH ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD TREND IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH AREAS ALONG
THE HI-LINE TO THE AB BORDER MOST FAVORED TO RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 6 INCHES FROM BOTH THE INITIAL WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ENHANCED SNOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EAST FRIDAY
MORNING. A 40-60% PROBABILITY FOR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES
STILL EXISTS FOR AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE US-87 CORRIDOR ACROSS
CENTRAL MT AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT MOUNTAIN RANGES AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE BRIDGER RANGE AND BOZEMAN PASS, WHERE SNOW IS LIKELY TO
PEAK FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MT.
THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND WINDS COULD IMPACT VISIBILITY
FOR MANY AREAS ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GLACIER, TOOLE AND PONDERA
COUNTIES, WHERE BOTH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY MORNING.
NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESSIVE 30 MPH ARE ALSO LIKELY FRIDAY
THROUGH JUDITH GAP AND THE BROADWATER COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH THREE
FORKS AND TWIN BRIDGES AREAS, WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER BUT STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR SW MT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH
FREEZE OF MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES LATER FRIDAY WITH THE LATER
ARRIVAL OF FALLING TEMPERATURES. HOENISCH
AVIATION
26/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE KLWT AND KHVR
TERMINALS. DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL
BE INTERMITTENT IFR-LEVEL CEILINGS AT THE KHVR TERMINAL. THEN FOG
WILL MOVE IN TO THE TERMINAL WITH LIFR-LEVEL CEILINGS. THEN LIFR-
LEVEL FOG WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL AFTER 27/05Z THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT THE KBZN, KHLN, AND KGTF TERMINALS THERE IS
A 20 - 40% CHANCE FOR SNOW AFTER 27/12Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA DURING THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. -IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 24 36 18 24 / 0 30 80 100
CTB 14 30 11 18 / 0 50 100 90
HLN 26 43 20 28 / 10 30 50 100
BZN 22 44 24 33 / 10 20 20 90
WYS 15 38 18 35 / 10 40 10 70
DLN 26 46 25 42 / 10 10 0 50
HVR 7 27 14 25 / 0 20 90 100
LWT 21 39 17 27 / 10 20 70 100
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE
COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER,
WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN
TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE
COUNTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
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