985
FXUS65 KTFX 272125
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
225 PM MST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY.
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SO FAR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEING THE COLDEST.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS AN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THERE IS ALSO A WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS
WILL OVERRIDE THE COLD SURFACE AIR AND BRING SNOW TO NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL LEAD
TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND BRING SNOWFALL TO THAT AREA. THE FRONT
PROGRESSION WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA, BUT
IT WILL STILL BRING A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW TO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. ON MONDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON FRIDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN AN 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH OR GREATER ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-
15. ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THERE IS GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OR
GREATER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE WIND GUSTS LED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ACROSS THE HELENA, GALLATIN, AND
MADISON RIVER VALLEY THERE IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR TWO INCHES OF
SNOW OR GREATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS. FOR DETAILS
SEE THE TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION BELOW.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A LITTLE
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 THERE IS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HI-LINE, GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION
(TRIANGULAR AREA FROM CUT BANK TO HAVRE TO GREAT FALLS), AND
GALLATIN VALLEY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE
FOR SUBZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MILK RIVER VALLEY THERE IS GREATER THAN
A 50% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES OF 10 BELOW ZERO OR LOWER. MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE MILK RIVER VALLEY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 60%
CHANCE FOR SUBZERO LOWS. ON SATURDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50%
CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF 15 DEGREES OR LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA. ON SUNDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR
HIGHS OR 15 DEGREES OR COLDER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA EAST
OF I-15. IG
AVIATION
27/18Z TAF PERIOD
MOISTURE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE BROKEN MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD-COVER
WITH A FEW LOWER BASES PRODUCING SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AND
MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS LOWER
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. A COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTH ACROSS NORTH-CETRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND ENHANCING
SNOWFALL WITH SNOW AND LOWER CIGS SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MT TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 18 18 -2 14 / 80 90 40 0
CTB 11 14 -12 10 / 100 90 20 0
HLN 19 22 3 21 / 70 100 30 0
BZN 24 28 0 20 / 40 90 40 0
WYS 18 32 -6 21 / 10 80 60 0
DLN 28 39 4 24 / 10 70 20 0
HVR 14 20 -10 8 / 90 90 70 0
LWT 15 20 -2 17 / 90 90 70 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS
COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-ELKHORN AND
BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA
VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND
HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-SNOWY AND JUDITH
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND
EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
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