068
FXUS65 KTFX 290317
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
817 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA BEFORE WINDING DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS CREATING AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
- TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A COLDER AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
AN EVENING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS OUT. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO
AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. THE SNOW IS SLOWLY
ENDING AROUND CUT BANK, AND THEN ALSO IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWEST MT, SUCH AS DILLON AND ENNIS. OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PRODUCING THE SNOW IS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST, AND THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR I-15, WHILE
AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST IN THE LEWISTOWN
AREA.
THE NEXT SET OF ADVISORIES ENDS AT 11 PM FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THAT SHOULD BE OK...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 11 PM, BUT THE BULK OF THE
IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER WITH.
THE MAIN CONCERN THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE HOW COLD IT GETS
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DOES ANY FOG DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW AFTER THIS SYSTEM ENDS LOOKS
TO BE TUE INTO WED. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 448 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM COMBINED
AFFECTS OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING INTO NW MT AND REACHING GLACIER
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL SURGE THROUGH
REMAINING PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS,
BUT ONLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT DILLON TO
ENNIS TO BIG SKY. NORTH WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30-40
MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST LOCALIZED DRIFTING AND
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT AS THE COLD AIRMASS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH WINDS DIMINISH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BELOW ZERO LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD AIRMASS/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS
EASTERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY, MAINTAINING THE COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
TEENS AND 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO THIS WEEKEND BUT AS LOW AS THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HI-LINE, WHERE COLDER AIR
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGIN TO
MODERATE.
WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK WE
REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY SHOW ANOTHER WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AROUND TUESDAY BUT DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH ITS EVENTUAL TRACK AND
TIMING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW AND
LIKELY WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES, BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
WITH DETAILS. HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE
ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE N/NW FLOW, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL MT MOUNTAIN
RANGES AND BRIDGER RANGE AND ADJACENT AREAS.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BOTH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AND AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS TO BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. TOMORROW'S MAX TEMPS WERE BLENDED WITH THE NBM
10TH PERCENTILE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HOENISCH
AVIATION
29/00Z TAF PERIOD
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS KBZN AND KEKS ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS SNOW
SHIELD. ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE BAND OF SNOW HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST, THEY CAN EXPECT LIGHT SNOW AND LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
LINGER THROUGH 29/02Z. UP ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS, SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING, BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
2902Z/2904Z, WITH SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY IF FOG DEVELOPS TOMORROW MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT. LITTLE CONFIDENCE LEFT IT OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW, BUT IT'LL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 0 18 -2 20 / 100 0 0 0
CTB -9 9 -8 19 / 30 0 0 0
HLN 2 20 7 26 / 30 0 10 0
BZN -2 21 7 25 / 90 0 10 0
WYS -4 23 6 29 / 50 0 20 20
DLN 6 26 14 29 / 30 0 0 0
HVR -7 6 -15 6 / 80 0 0 0
LWT -3 18 -1 23 / 100 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE
COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN
TOOLE AND LIBERTY-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL
COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-
GALLATIN VALLEY-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-
MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-SNOWY AND JUDITH
MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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