118
FXUS65 KTFX 291045
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
345 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR SETTLED INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ARRIVES TUESDAY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR HAS
MADE ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LOW TEMPERATURES DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW 0 OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD AIR WILL
MODERATE DURING THE DAY, BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING,
WHICH WILL MAKE ANY ICY ROADS SLOW TO IMPROVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE EAST, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO SLOWLY
ERODE THE COLD AIR OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NEW WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL/WESTERLY,
ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO SPILL OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, THOUGH
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WINDS PICKING UP AND POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN SOME MILD BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE RECENT SNOWPACK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, HOWEVER, BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
AS IT DOES. WHILE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AS MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS OUR DEPARTING SYSTEM DID, THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH SNOW TO CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS,
PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE LITTLE BELT AND SNOWY
MOUNTAINS (ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE).
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON DETAILS, BUT OVERALL
MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST A GENERALLY ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN, WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SOME MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LUDWIG
AVIATION
29/06Z TAF PERIOD
SNOW IS STILL WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. AS SNOW CLEARS OVERNIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
AT KLWT AND AT KHVR UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IF CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT OVER TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, THEN THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR FOG
DEVELOPING. SO FAR, CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH AT KCTB AND
KHVR TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOW STRATUS
DECK PREVAILS OVER FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. -WILSON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 17 -4 20 8 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 8 -8 18 7 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 20 6 25 11 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 22 5 24 5 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 23 7 29 2 / 0 10 10 0
DLN 26 15 28 10 / 0 10 0 0
HVR 6 -15 5 -8 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 17 -1 23 7 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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